Dallas vs Golden State picks take center stage on Christmas Day as the Mavericks head west to face the Warriors in a nationally spotlighted matchup, and bettors digging into NBA picks will find plenty of angles baked into the spread movement and total for this one.
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Terms & Conditions Quick Picks and Prediction Spread: Golden State -8 Total: Under 227.5 Projected Final Score: Warriors 118, Mavericks 109 Odds and Line MovementOpening Odds Team Spread Total Dallas +4.5 226.5 Golden State -4.5 226.5 Current Odds Team Spread Total Dallas +8 (-106) 227.5 Golden State -8 (-114) 227.5 Line Movement – Spread Date Dallas Golden State 12/20 +4.5 -4.5 12/23 +7 -7 12/24 +8 -8 Line Movement – Total Date Over Under 12/20 226.5 226.5 12/23 227 227 12/24 227.5 227.5 Key Matchups and Handicap
Dallas comes into this Christmas Day matchup at 12-19 and still searching for consistency, particularly away from home where the Mavericks have struggled. The highlight entering this game is the offensive upside, led by a breakout performance from 19-year-old Cooper Flagg, who poured in 33 points in a one-point win over Denver. While that victory showcased Dallas’ scoring ceiling, it also reinforced the volatility that has defined this roster.
Golden State, meanwhile, sits at an even 15-15 and has been far steadier on its home floor. The Warriors are 9-4 at Chase Center and continue to lean on a balanced offensive approach. Stephen Curry remains the focal point, but Golden State has done its best work when multiple scoring options are involved, allowing them to weather cold shooting stretches better than Dallas.
The spread expansion from -4.5 to -8 reflects growing confidence in Golden State’s ability to separate, particularly against a Mavericks defense that has been inconsistent and short-handed. With Dallas missing interior stability and rotation depth, Golden State should be able to control pace and limit second-chance opportunities.
Betting Trends (DAL and GS) Dallas is 3-9 on the road this season Golden State is 9-4 straight up at home Dallas has struggled to cover as a road underdog Golden State games at home have leaned under when favored by 7 or more Key Injuries and Notes (DAL and GS) Dallas is without Dereck Lively II for the season Dallas has multiple rotation players listed as game-time decisions Golden State could see Al Horford return from injury Golden State continues to monitor Seth Curry’s availability ATS and Total Picks Against the Spread: Golden State -8 Over/Under: Under 227.5 Final Score Prediction
Golden State’s home efficiency and deeper rotation show up over four quarters, allowing the Warriors to pull away late in a controlled Christmas Day win.
Final Score: Golden State 118, Dallas 109
How to Bet
This matchup is best approached by pairing a moderate favorite with a disciplined total. Bettors looking to lock in value can shop around using sportsbook promo codes and compare lines across the best sportsbooks. Those interested in alternative markets can also explore social sportsbooks for Christmas Day action.
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