Coming out of Tuesday’s 110-106 Orlando Magic win over the Portland Trail Blazers, there has been one question that has preoccupied most Magic fans (many of whom probably did not stay up for the 10 p.m. Eastern Time start):
Why did Paolo Banchero take only eight field goal attempts?
It is becoming a daily exercise to parse every Banchero box score to find some deeper meaning.
He is not taking enough shots in this one. He is taking too many in another. He is turning it over too much. He is too aggressive or not aggressive enough.
Banchero has earned the curse of high expectations. The Magic gave him a max contract with the Rose Rule, surely expecting that he would meet the super max and be an All-NBA player. His struggles this season have been confounding.
Everyone knows the Magic need Banchero at his best to do much of anything in the Playoffs. For the first time in this team’s rebuild, there is real pressure to perform at a higher level.
All eyes are on Banchero. Everyone is asking questions about him — from fans, to pundits, to national media.
There is a lot of noise. Noise that Banchero is plainly dismissing as he tries to work his way back into rhythm. Paolo Banchero gave some harsh words to Josh Robbins of The Athletic in San Francisco, calling it “bull—-” that anyone would think he and Franz Wagner cannot work out together.
Banchero has been fighting a lot of narratives and questions about his status as a superstar.
He has not shut down many of those questions with his inconsistent play to start the season. Heavy is the hand that signs the max contract, so to speak.
The Magic do need more from Banchero. But there is still a lot of rushing to judgment and being a prisoner of the moment when it comes to Banchero.
Some patience is certainly warranted.
Banchero’s season so far
There is no denying that Paolo Banchero has not delivered this season. All of his numbers are essentially down across the board. His shooting has been disastrous.
He has tried to find a way around it, but the Orlando Magic need Banchero as the main hub in their offense and a constant drumbeat of a scorer.
Banchero is averaging 20.5 points per game, the lowest since his rookie year. He is shooting a career-low 14.9 field goal attempts per game and shooting 43.6 percent from the floor overall, the worst since his rookie year. Banchero is shooting a career-worst 23.7 percent from three.
According to data from Synergy, Banchero is shooting a 26.1 percent on jumpers, in the bottom 10 percent in the league. Among players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent, only Ja Morant and Cam Thomas have a worse effective field goal percentage.
Banchero has contributed elsewhere with a career-high 8.5 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game, a number in line with his numbers last year. He is shooting a career-best 77.2 percent from the foul line on a career-high 8.6 free throw attempts per game.
But there are a lot of discouraging signs from Banchero this season. If his role is to be the team’s leading scorer, he is not living up to that billing.
Returning from injury
There are some extenuating circumstances.
Paolo Banchero strained his groin 12 games into the season and missed three weeks. He returned slowly and seemed more determined to ease his way into things, helping keep up the ball movement that powered the Magic to a 7-3 record in his absence.
But two games after returning, Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain. Banchero was back to being the hub and could not be as passive. But he was still clearly uncomfortable.
Banchero has averaged 20.8 points per game, 9.7 rebounds per game and 6.0 assists per game in the six games since Wagner’s injury. He is shooting only 40.6 percent from the floor.
Orlando has gone only 3-3 in those games and the team has a 111.5 offensive rating, 23rd in the league. Things have not been maintained the way they were when Banchero was out.
That is wehre a lot of this comparison comes from.
Some of that is certainly Banchero working his way back from injury. He is playing his full complement of minutes, but even Banchero would admit that coming back from a core injury like a groin takes time. It feels like the struggles he had for the month after returning from his oblique injury last year.
Banchero is finding other ways to contribute. He recorded a triple-double in the loss to the Denver Nuggets and had a pair of near triple-doubles in the two subsequent games on the road trip.
The accusations that Banchero would stall the offense?
Orlando has a 117.0 offensive rating in its last six games with Banchero on the floor, a mark that trails only Jalen Suggs (in two games) and Wendell Carter during that stretch.
He averages 3.52 seconds per touch this season, according to Second Spectrum. He has averaged 3.29 seconds per touch in his last six games. He is trying to move the ball and work around his shooting frustrations.
Waiting for Paolo and Franz
The Orlando Magic will need more from Paolo Banchero at some point.
The hope will be that getting fully healthy — both Paolo Banchero getting back to full speed and rediscovering his efficiency and scoring and Franz Wagner returning to the lineup — will unlock his full potential.
Through Wagner’s injury on Dec. 7, the Magic had a +2.1 net rating (114.1/112.0) with Banchero on the floor and a +2.7 net rating (114.2/111.4) with Wagner on the floor. The Magic’s success this season has come from the addition of Desmond Bane, the energy of Jalen Suggs and the emergence of Anthony Black.
And the Magic’s main stars work very well together.
The Magic have a +4.0 net rating (114.2/110.3) with both Banchero and Wagner on the floor. The idea that the two cannot play together and complement each other should be squarely bunk.
The visuals of the way the Magic are playing right now with Banchero and Bane as the sole stars is certainly jarring. Orlando has invested a lot in Banchero to do more.
They will need more from him.
But Banchero is right to bristle at the suggestion that there is something inherently wrong with the Magic. They have something that can work.