The Dallas Mavericks (12-19) face the Golden State Warriors (15-15) on Christmas Day at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, with tip-off set for 5 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 regular season: Tied 2-2

The Mavericks edged the Denver Nuggets 131-130 on Tuesday night, covering as 1-point home underdogs with the Over (234) cashing. F Cooper Flagg stuffed the stat sheet with 33 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, tying his career high with 14 points in the opening quarter and drilling a career-best 4 treys. F Anthony Davis added 31 points and 9 rebounds.

The Warriors stayed hot Monday night with their second straight win, rolling past the Orlando Magic 120-97. Golden State covered as 5-point home favorites as the Under (229.5) cashed. G Stephen Curry bounced back from a quiet first half to score 18 of his 26 points after the break. G Jimmy Butler added 21 points, G Moses Moody chipped in 20, and G Brandin Podziemski provided a spark off the bench with 16 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds.

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Mavericks at Warriors odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:01 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Warriors -325 (bet $325 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +8.5 (-118) | Warriors -8.5 (-102)Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

G Max Christie (illness) probableC Dwight Powell (illness) probableG Klay Thompson (knee) probableF P.J. Washington (foot) questionable

Warriors

G Seth Curry (thigh) outC Al Horford (Sciatic) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictionsPrediction

Warriors 114, Mavericks 110

PASS.

I don’t mind sprinkling a moneyline bet on Dallas (+260), but I’ll play it safe and take them getting points on Christmas Day.

BET MAVERICKS +8.5 (-118).

This line has drifted because of perception, not performance. Golden State still gets automatic respect in these showcase games, but this version of the Warriors hasn’t earned margin. Dallas has quietly been competitive against quality opponents and doesn’t need to be perfect to stay within this number.

The Mavericks defend well enough to keep games close, ranking among the league’s better units in defensive efficiency. That matters against a Warriors offense that too often stalls when it can’t get easy looks in transition. Golden State still competes on defense, but the scoring droughts are real, and they leave little room for separation.

Dallas is comfortable playing slow and forcing mismatches late. Flagg’s emergence gives the Mavericks a reliable half-court option who doesn’t rush possessions and can punish switches. That’s exactly the type of player who can keep this game tight in the final minutes. If Golden State overhelps or loses structure, Dallas has shown it will take advantage.

Recent trends also point this way. Dallas has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings, while Golden State has failed to cover 4 of its last 5. The Warriors can still win, but asking them to clear a big number assumes consistency they haven’t shown.

I don’t need Dallas to steal the spotlight. I just need them to stay connected, defend, and wait for Golden State’s offense to cool off. With the points inflated by narrative, Mavericks plus the number is the side I’m playing.

BET UNDER 227.5 (-105).

These teams keep turning this matchup into a grind, and 4 of the last 6 meetings have stayed below the number. Both defenses rank top-10 in efficiency, while neither offense has been consistent. Dallas is short-handed without key scorers, and Golden State has leaned on defense lately. With half-court basketball and longer possessions likely, this feels like another game that finishes under the total.

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