Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers matchup on Tuesday’s 14-game NBA slate.

On Tuesday, the NBA brings a massive 14-game slate. The two nationally televised matchups on NBC/Peacock take center stage, with the later contest pitting the Houston Rockets against the Los Angeles Clippers on the West Coast. This could be a fun one as James Harden takes on his former team, now led by his former teammate Kevin Durant as well. Can the Clips pull off a shocking upset against a Houston squad in the midst of a cold stretch?

Here’s a Rockets vs. Clippers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s nightcap.

Rockets vs. Clippers prediction, preview

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Houston Rockets. This team was scorching hot in November with an 11-2 record through the month, firing on all cylinders heading into the last stretch before the new year. Their current spiral began with a loss to the Jazz on December 1, then losses to the Mavericks, Pelicans and Kings over the last three weeks. At 17-9 overall and 5-5 across their last five games, the Rockets have tumbled to sixth in the Western Conference standings heading into this West Coast road trip for the holidays.

As a unit, Houston does a lot of things right. The Rockets still rank second in the NBA with a +8.9 NETRTG, score 121.0 PPG (third-most), and give up just 112.2 (fourth-fewest) while playing great defense and crashing the boards better than almost any other team. However, late-game execution has been a consistent issue recently. The good news is there’s still more talent than most rosters boast, headlined by Kevin Durant with 25.3 PPG and an amazing 50.9%/43.5%/89.3% shooting split. Alperen Sengun is also making a case for his first All-NBA nod with 23.2 PPG along with team-highs in rebounds (9.2) and assists (6.9). Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson each average double-digit points with lockdown defense, and Tari Eason just returned from an extended absence to the tune of a 16-point outing as well. Plus, Reed Sheppard’s breakout campaign continues with 13.5 PPG while shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc.

As tough as this skid feels for Houston, things are far worse for the Clippers. Los Angeles entered the campaign coming off a playoff appearance with hopes of running things back thanks to a group of savvy veterans. Instead, the team has been met with a 7-21 record at just 2-8 across the last 10 outings. Much has gone wrong lately, and bright spots are pretty difficult to come by.

The Clippers come in at 25th in NETRTG with a -5.5 mark. They’re not particularly effective on offense with just 110.6 PPG (28th), though a league-average defense allows just 116.0 PPG (15th). However, they’re actually 26th in DEFRTG, and the situation may get worse on that end with starting center Ivica Zubac now expected to miss multiple weeks with a Grade 2 ankle sprain. Not only is the big man a standout presence in the paint with 11.1 rebounds per game, but he’s also the team’s third-leading scorer with 15.6 PPG. Los Angeles does still deploy a pair of 25 PPG scorers in stars James Harden (25.8 PPG) and Kawhi Leonard (25.2 PPG), the former of whom posts a team-best 8.2 assists per game while playing like his vintage self. John Collins averages 12.5 PPG with 4.8 rebounds a night and will now be expected to step up in Zubac’s absence, but otherwise, the Clippers don’t have much in the way of standout depth.

Rockets vs. Clippers pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -6.5 favorites tonight with -270 odds on the Moneyline. The Clippers are +220 ML underdogs at home with the game total set at 221.5 points. Betting splits show 89% of straight wagers on Houston to win, 82% of bets favoring the visitors to cover, and 83% picking the over.

As of the time this article was written, the injury report looks entirely clear for the Rockets beyond a couple of longer-term issues, while Zubac is the only current rotation player out for the Clips.

While I considered writing up the over on the game total at 221.5, I think there’s another direction I’d rather go if I were placing anything on this game. It’s not that I think that won’t hit — it very well could — but I’m just a little bit worried about how this Clippers offense looks against such a strong defensive unit, especially without Zubac to work in the paint and as a pick-and-roll threat. Instead of going towards the game total, I’m looking toward the Rockets’ alt total of over 115.5 points at some slight plus odds, if not considering pushing that line up to 119.5 or something similar for better value. The importance of Zubac to the Los Angeles defense can’t be overstated, and while Brook Lopez could potentially slot in as the starting center, he’s showing signs of regression this season and Houston has plenty of firepower to call upon under the basket as well.

Sengun could dominate the interior here while Thompson pressure the rim at will. Factor in the three-point shooting from sources like Durant, Sheppard and even Eason — who leads the NBA with a 53.6% three-point percentage, albeit on a small sample — and the Rockets should pour on the points.

Top pick: HOU Rockets over 115.5 points (+110)