The question of Jalen Duren’s contract extension has been looming large over the Pistons since the offseason. The Pistons were unable to reach an agreement with him over the summer, and they may have to pay up next year instead. As NBA Insider Jake Fischer (subscription needed) notes, his extension price might now reach up to $40 million per season.

Duren will rightfully seek a huge deal

Duren has shown significant improvements in his game this season on both ends of the court. He’s now up to 18.5 points per game, up from 11.8 last season. And the scoring has led to wins – the Pistons are undefeated when Duren scores at least 20. The direct translation to victories make it even harder to resist offering him a big contract.

Even more than his scoring, Duren’s growth on defense has defined the team’s success. Although he still has some improvements to make, his defense is miles better than last season. His consistent rim protection has elevated the Pistons to a top defense in the league.

With these two-way improvements, Duren is sure to get a huge payday next season. He’s currently on a very cheap rookie-scale contract as the 13th pick in his draft class. But next season, he will be able to fetch up to $40 million on the market, either from the Pistons or another team.

Because the Pistons were unable to reach an extension with Duren last summer, he’ll become a restricted free agent next year. There will be plenty of teams with cap space willing to spend it on a promising young big making drastic leaps. The Pistons will at least get the opportunity to match any other team’s offer but Duren’s contract could be determined by another team’s desire.

It’ll be a huge hit for the Pistons overall payroll when Duren’s contract value increases by at least $30 million per season. However, they will have some other places on the roster to save money. This season, the second-highest contract on the team is Tobias Harris, whose contract expires after this season. Harris has been very disappointing this season, and is unlikely to re-sign with the Pistons for the same contract value.

As the Pistons’ young core ages into its prime, the financial situation will get harder and harder to balance. Cade Cunningham’s highest contract incentives have already kicked off after his All-NBA selection last season and he will be making at least $50 million every season starting in 2026. If Jalen Duren gets to a similar number, possibly with an All-Star or All-NBA selection of his own, the Pistons will have a lot of money tied up in the pair. The front office will have their work cut out for them maximizing the roster around their young stars.