Christmas Day in the NBA kicks off in New York City, as Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a battle that was supposed to be against the two top teams in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Cavs have not held up their end of the bargain, going just 17-14 through their first 31 games despite ranking ninth in the league in net rating.

The Knicks (20-9) won the NBA Cup earlier this season, but they are entering this game off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Brunson and OG Anunoby did not play in that matchup, but both players are off the injury report for this Christmas Day matchup. 

Cleveland has been down reigning Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley due to a calf injury, and he’s listed as questionable for this matchup. If he sits, that could be a major issue against a Knicks team that is second in the league in offensive rating.

These teams met back in October in their season opener, and the Knicks were able to pull out an eight-point win at home. So, New York being favored in this matchup shouldn’t come as a surprise to bettors. 

Overall, the Knicks are 14-2 at home, and they’ve covered the spread in 13 of those 16 games. Can they keep that going on Christmas Day? 

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown to kick off a loaded holiday slate. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Cavs Injury ReportKnicks Injury ReportCavs Best NBA Prop Bet

Today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Mitchell is one of my favorite prop targets on Christmas: 

The Cavs’ offense has been carried by Donovan Mitchell this season, and he’s having a great shooting season, knocking down 38.8 percent of his 3s on 10.4 attempts per game.

Mitchell leads the NBA in 3s per game (4.0) and he’s made at least four shots from deep in 16 of his appearances in the 2025-26 campaign.

That puts him in a great spot against the Knicks on Christmas, as New York ranks 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made and 19th in opponent 3-point percentage.

While Mitchell made just two 3-pointers in the season opener against the Knicks, he also shot nine times from deep. In fact, the star guard has at least nine 3-pointers attempted in 22 of his 28 games. 

That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Thursday afternoon. 

The Knicks are one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, and a ton of numbers back that up. 

New York is 14-2 straight up at home, posting an average scoring margin for +12.1 points in those games. The Knicks are dominant against the spread at home as well, posting a league-best 13-3 mark in 16 games. 

They also have the third-best net rating (+12.3) at home in the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Cavs are struggling mightily this season compared to their expectations, sitting in seventh in the East while going .500 on the road. The Cavs have not shot the ball nearly as well as they did last season (21st in 3-point percentage), and they rank 16th in the NBA in defensive rating.

That’s going to be a major problem against a Knicks team that is No. 2 in the league in offensive rating, especially since the Cavs may not have Evan Mobley patrolling the paint due to his calf injury. 

I’m all in on the Knicks winning this game, and they already have a victory over the Cavs where Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson both sat out. 

Pick: Knicks -5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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