Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are rolling right now, winning three games in a row and eight of their last 10 to move into the No. 5 spot in the Western Conference.

On Christmas, the Wolves hit the road to take on MVP candidate Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, who are 21-8 this season but coming off a road loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night. 

Jokic is averaging a triple-double, and he’s got a great case to win his fourth MVP of his career in the 2025-26 season. However, the Timberwolves have been a tough opponent for him in recent seasons, sweeping Denver in last year’s season series. 

This season, the Nuggets are 2-0 against Minnesota, but they’ll be down three starters – Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun –  on Christmas Day.

Edwards and the Wolves are coming off a home win against a Jalen Brunson-less New York Knicks team on Tuesday, and Ant Man went off in that matchup, dropping 38 points on 15-of-27 shooting. 

After missing a few games with a foot issue, Edwards has returned to lead Minnesota to three wins a row, putting it just 1.5 games back of Denver in the Western Conference standings. 

This should be a fun matchup to close a loaded Christmas Day slate, so let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Thursday night. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Timberwolves Injury ReportNuggets Injury ReportNuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is one of my favorite prop targets on Christmas: 

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season, and he’s cleared 22.5 rebounds and assists in both of his matchups with Minnesota this season, hanging 29 and 23 rebounds and assists on them.

Jokic is averaging a whopping 19.6 rebound chances and 18.1 potential assists per game, giving him a solid floor when it comes to clearing this prop. 

The Nuggets star is averaging 12.0 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game, so this is right at his season average on Thursday. 

Minnesota does have one of the best defenses in the NBA, but I’m buying the Nuggets’ MVP candidate, as he’s carried a massive load on offense with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun banged up. 

In two meetings this season, the Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 235 and 241 points, and now both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in offensive rating.

Denver has the best offensive rating in the NBA, and it leads the league in points per game (125.2) this season. The Wolves are 12th in points per game (118.5), but these teams are still combining to average well over 240 points per night this season.

Since Denver is down Gordon, Johnson and Braun, it sets up well for the Wolves offense, as those players would likely draw the assignments on Julius Randle and Edwards. 

Plus, while Minnesota is fifth in the league in defensive rating, the Nuggets have slipped all the way to 17th after a hot start, and they allowed over 130 points to the No. 27 offense in Dallas on Tuesday.

This is also the third game in four nights for Denver, which means a lot of minutes will be put on the team’s top players. 

There are also a few trends that sealed the deal for me in this OVER bet:

Let’s root for some points in this final matchup on Christmas. 

Pick: OVER 239.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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