By: Kim Smith Published 12/22/2025, 05:23 AM ET 
The Memphis Grizzlies travel to Oklahoma City on Monday night to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in a Western Conference matchup that clearly favours the home side. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center, with coverage available on Peacock.
Before diving into this matchup, bettors are encouraged to check out our other free NBA picks, where we break down the full slate with the same data-driven approach used here. With that in mind, this game presents one of the most lopsided point spreads on the board, and the numbers largely support that view.
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Terms & Conditions Game Information Snapshot Date: Monday, December 22, 2025 Time: 9:30 PM ET Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK TV: Peacock Spread: Oklahoma City -16.5 Total: 228.5 Memphis Grizzlies: Short-Handed and Searching for Consistency
Memphis enters this contest with a 13–15 overall record and a 7–7 mark on the road. The Grizzlies have been competitive in stretches, as shown by a 7–3 record over their last 10 games, but defensive issues and injuries continue to limit their upside against elite opponents.
Offensively, Memphis is averaging 114.7 points per game, but that production is often offset by a defence allowing 115.7 points per contest. Their recent results reflect this imbalance, including a 130–122 loss to Washington in their most recent outing, where defensive stops were difficult to come by.
The focal point of the Memphis offence remains Jaren Jackson Jr., who leads the team with 18.0 points per game while shooting 47.8% from the field and 77.2% from the free-throw line. Jackson’s ability to score inside and stretch the floor is vital, but without consistent guard play, opposing defences can focus heavily on him.
On the road against a team like Oklahoma City, Memphis faces a difficult task. The Thunder excel at forcing turnovers and controlling pace, which plays directly into the Grizzlies’ weaknesses when operating with a depleted backcourt.
Key Injuries – Memphis Grizzlies Ja Morant (G): OUT (Dec 23) Brandon Clarke (F): OUT (Dec 23) Vince Williams Jr. (G): OUT (Dec 23) John Konchar (G): OUT (Jan 6) Javon Small (G): OUT (Jan 9)
The absence of Morant is particularly significant, as it removes Memphis’ primary playmaker and transition threat. With multiple guards sidelined, depth and ball-handling remain major concerns entering this matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Elite at Home and Dominant on Defence
Oklahoma City comes into Monday night with a 25–3 record, including a perfect 13–0 mark at home. The Thunder have been one of the most efficient teams on both ends of the floor, averaging 122.5 points per game while allowing just 106.4, one of the best defensive marks in the league.
Even in recent losses, Oklahoma City has remained competitive, and their last five games include dominant wins such as a 138–89 victory over Phoenix and a 131–101 road win at Utah. At home, their ability to build early leads has consistently put opponents in catch-up mode.
Leading the way offensively is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 32.5 points per game on an outstanding 55.4% shooting from the field and 88.3% from the free-throw line. His scoring efficiency and ability to draw fouls make Oklahoma City extremely difficult to slow down, particularly against teams missing perimeter defenders.
Defensively, the Thunder also excel in generating steals, averaging 10.5 per game, which fuels their transition offence and keeps pressure on opposing ball-handlers throughout the night.
Key Injuries – Oklahoma City Thunder Ousmane Dieng (F): OUT (Dec 23) Jaylin Williams (F): OUT (Dec 23) Isaiah Hartenstein (C): OUT (Dec 23) Alex Caruso (G): GTD (Dec 22) Aaron Wiggins (G): GTD (Dec 22)
While Oklahoma City has several rotation players listed, their overall depth has allowed them to maintain a high level of play, particularly at home where role players have consistently contributed.
Matchup Dynamics and Statistical Edge
Memphis does bring a respectable rebounding average (46.4 per game), but Oklahoma City’s ability to disrupt passing lanes and limit clean looks often neutralises second-chance opportunities. If the Thunder establish control early, this game could follow a familiar script seen in several of their home wins.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder PickAgainst the Spread Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder -16.5
Despite the large number, Oklahoma City’s perfect home record and strong defensive metrics support laying the points. Memphis’ injury situation, particularly in the backcourt, makes it difficult to envision them keeping this game within striking distance for four quarters.
Total Pick
Under 228.5
While both teams are capable of scoring, Oklahoma City’s defence and Memphis’ inconsistent offensive efficiency without key guards point toward a slightly lower-scoring outcome. If the Thunder build a comfortable lead, the pace could slow in the second half, favouring the under.
Final Prediction
This matchup sets up as a difficult road spot for Memphis against one of the league’s most complete teams. Oklahoma City’s combination of scoring efficiency, defensive pressure, and home-court dominance gives them a clear advantage from the opening tip.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder 123, Memphis Grizzlies 104
That result covers the spread and lands below the posted total, making Oklahoma City and the under the strongest betting angles for Monday night’s contest.
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