Despite a beautiful offseason orchestrated by new GM Onsi Saleh, the Hawks are on a seemingly inevitable collision course with their worst enemy once again: the play-in tournament.
A brutal four-game losing streak, including three dropped games against bottom-of-the-pack teams in the East, has caused the Hawks to dip below .500 for the first time since November 8th. To make matters worse, the Hawks only have one healthy center in the lineup, and he’s 6’8. Kristaps Porzingis is battling an illness, while third-stringer N’Faly Dante tore his ACL.
Most troubling of all, however, is where Atlanta is losing many of its games. Typically, teams maintain a homecourt winning percentage of 55%, roughly 10% better than their chances of success on the road. It’s been a Benjamin Button-type season in Atlanta, however – the Hawks have won a magnificent 59% of their road games, but have only emerged victorious at home at a dismal 36%.
More concerning, Atlanta has dropped 5 of its last 6 home games – its only home victory this calendar month was squeaking by Philly on the 14th.
Do the Hawks have a real homecourt problem?
The first qualifier to this unusual trend is to look at other teams around the league. To nobody’s surprise, however, the same general home advantage of 55% is maintained, and Atlanta’s clip is a massive outlier. Not only are the Hawks one of only five Eastern Conference teams to sport a sub-50% home success rate (WAS, IND, BKN, CHA), but also the only team leaguewide to maintain both an above .500 road win% and a below .500 home win%.
Diving deeper, it turns out that Atlanta has played a surprisingly difficult home schedule. While 7 of their 17 road games to date sport opponents currently below .500, only 4 of the games Atlanta has played at home have come against sub-.500 competition. The easiest games on the schedule – playing a bad team at home – still lie ahead for the Hawks.
Not only does this bode well for the Hawks’ home schedule through April, but also for the schedule as a whole. In fact, the Hawks have the eighth-easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the year.
If Atlanta can also address some of their larger gaps down low before the deadline, look for their smoother schedule to lift them to new heights in the near future, especially at home in State Farm Arena.