Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for 76ers at Bulls on Friday.

It’s hard to think of fan bases who have been on more of an emotional roller coaster in the early parts of the season than the Philadelphia 76ers and the Chicago Bulls. Thus, it’s only fitting that they’ll play in the early game of tonight’s featured Amazon Prime NBA double-header.

The game will tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET at the United Center in the Windy City. Only Patrick Williams (illness) is questionable for the hosts, while Philadelphia predictably has a litany of players with injury designations: Joel Embiid (knee) is questionable alongside Dominick Barlow, VJ Edgecombe, and Quentin Grimes, all of whom are dealing with illnesses.

It’s basically a toss-up at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the 76ers at -118 on the Moneyline and the Bulls at -102. The point total is set to 240.5. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s interdivisional battle and offer my prediction.

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls preview, prediction

For Chicago, the volatility is extreme. The Bulls won each of their first five games of the season and six of their next seven, lost 13 of their next 16, and have bounced back with five wins in their last six games. They’ve scored as many as 152 points and as few as 91 and posted blowout losses to the Indiana Pacers and New Orleans Pelicans and wins over the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks. The encouraging part for Chicagoans is that Josh Giddey now has a large sample size of playing like a star (20.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game) and Matas Buzelis is finishing well; the discouraging part is that as long as Nikola Vučević and Coby White remain on the team, it will continue to be stuck in neutral.

Philadelphia might be an even more confusing team to analyze. The 76ers have neither won nor lost more than three games in a row ever since a 4-0 start to the season, and Paul George and Joel Embiid have both been in and out of the lineup with various ailments. Tyrese Maxey, who leads the league in minutes per game and ranks third in scoring, has been about the only constant, but Edgecombe and Grimes have provided solid supplementary scoring and Andre Drummond has suddenly become a reliable shooter (15-for-36 from deep so far this season) in his 14th season while continuing to be one of the league’s best per-minute rebounders.

76ers at Bulls pick, best bet

Even during this latest hot stretch, the Bulls have had a below-average defense but have been able to compensate with a league-best offense, so I wouldn’t expect them to really stop Maxey much. Philadelphia has had the opposite problem: over its last 10 games, in which Embiid has played six, it has had the league’s fifth-best defense but a bottom-10 offense, though the malaise isn’t Embiid’s fault, given that he has had a net-positive impact on the offense this season. Stylistically, these teams are also very different; Chicago ranks second in pace, while the 76ers, slowed down by Embiid’s more plodding, methodical game, rank 11th-to-last.

This game will be determined by finishing: both teams allow lots of shots in the restricted area (for the Bulls, a league-leading 32.3 shots per game, and for Philadelphia, 29.0, the sixth-highest mark) and allow roughly league-average accuracy. Both teams also allow among the fewest shots in the non-restricted paint and hold opponents to among the lowest percentages. That should play into Chicago’s advantage: it has attempted the second-most shots within the restricted area (the 76ers rank fourth), and while it has finished such shots at the third-lowest rate, Philadelphia has been the worst-finishing team. That edge might flip in the 76ers’ favor if Embiid suits up: he’s attempted the third-most shots at the rim of any Philadelphia player but has been more accurate than Edgecombe or Maxey. Embiid’s presence could also be a swing factor on the boards: the 76ers have slightly out-rebounded their opponents with the Cameroonian on the floor and slightly been out-rebounded without him.

Many of the other factors swing towards Philadelphia. It forces more turnovers than the Bulls while turning it over less frequently and draws more fouls while fouling less. Chicago, buoyed by its youth and athleticism, have been better in transition on both sides of the ball, but offensively, the 76ers have scored the 10th-most points on fast-breaks, which is sufficient enough. Some of that transition scoring could take a hit if Edgecombe doesn’t suit up, as the 20-year-old has compensated for balky finishing (the worst accuracy among the 77 players who have attempted at least four tries at the rim per game) with otherworldly athleticism.

The Bulls have a fairly sizable advantage in terms of shooting. They’ve produced the most wide-open threes per game while allowing fewer than the 76ers have, and their shooting over the last six games (37.5%) is actually a below-average mark. Similarly, opponents haven’t shot anomalously poorly over the last six games. Philadelphia’s cold offense hasn’t been driven by poor shooting, either; it has had league-average accuracy over its last 10 games. If anything, its defensive strength has been overstated, since opponents have shot the fifth-worst percentage on wide-open threes, though it’s probably still better than Chicago’s, since Embiid and Paul George were both Defensive Player of the Year finalists in their primes and Edgecombe combines his athleticism with effort on the defensive end.

Though this game ultimately swings on the health of all four of the 76ers’ questionable players, the Bulls’ offense has actually been pretty sustainable over the last six games: attempting the most shots at the rim and the most wide-open threes tends to win basketball games. While the home court advantage factor actually swings in Philadelphia’s favor — both teams have been better on the road than at home — that was less true in a larger sample size last season. Chicago should win this one and confound its fans even more.

Best bet: Chicago Bulls Moneyline (-102)