Sean Barnard details his preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks NBA matchup.

In an Eastern Conference battle across today’s nine-game NBA slate, the New York Knicks will face off with the Atlanta Hawks.

This is the first of three matchups between these two teams this year, with two of these games being played this week. Tonight’s matchup will take place at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, before they face off again at Madison Square Garden on Friday.

The Knicks enter as 5.5-point road favorites and hold -225 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks are +185 underdogs with the game total set at 243.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.

Knicks vs. Hawks prediction, preview

The New York Knicks are 21-9 this season, which slots them into second place in the Eastern Conference. They defeated the Cavaliers 126-124 on Christmas Day, after trailing by 17 and only leading for 17% of the matchup. New York has won 13 of its past 16 games. The Knicks are 18-13 against the spread this year, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their matchups.

Jalen Brunson headlines the production and is doing his best to play himself into the MVP conversation. The Villanova product is averaging 29.3 points, 6.5 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game. Karl-Anthony Towns provides balance at the big man spot with 21.9 points and 11.8 rebounds per contest. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have each had some impressive flashes in the new Mike Brown system. Mitchell Robinson is also putting up some historic rebounding numbers off the bench, posting averages of 4.5 points and 8.7 rebounds in just 18.5 minutes per game. Jordan Clarkson has provided a nice spark of scoring off the bench and settled into his role. New York is battling some injuries, with Josh Hart set to miss tonight due to an ankle injury he sustained on Christmas, while Miles McBride and Landry Shamet remain out.

As a team, the Knicks are scoring 120.3 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. New York ranks third in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, fourth in three-point percentage, third in rebounds per game, and fourth in offensive rebounds per game. Opponents are scoring 113.3 points per game, which ranks eighth in the league. New York ranks 14th in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fifth in opponents’ rebounds allowed. It has had some struggles guarding the three-point line, ranking 25th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 21st in opponents’ three-point percentage.

The Atlanta Hawks are in a strange spot as an organization. They’re 15-17 on the season and sit in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is looking to snap a five-game losing streak and has dropped nine of its last 11 games. The Hawks are 14-18 against the spread, and the over has cashed in 18 of their games.

Trae Young’s future with the franchise is looking cloudier, with no extension agreed upon. The four-time All-Star has played just nine games this season, of which the Hawks are 2-7. Young is averaging 20.4 points and 8.8 assists. The emergence of Jalen Johnson has further complicated things, with the Duke product looking the part of a franchise centerpiece by posting averages of 23.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has made a strong impact in his first season with the franchise, averaging 20.4 points and 8.8 assists per game. Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Vit Krejci and Luke Kennard round out most of the rotation. Kristaps Porzingis, N’Faly Dante and Eli Ndiaye remain sidelined with injuries.

The Hawks are scoring 118.6 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. They rank 16th in offensive rating, seventh in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Teams are scoring 119.8 points per game against Atlanta, which ranks 24th. The Hawks rank 17th in defensive rating, 23rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 16th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Knicks vs. Hawks pick, best bet

Tonight marks the second half of a back-to-back for Atlanta, after it fell 126-111 to the Heat last night. When they play to their peak, the Hawks look like a playoff team loaded with long, athletic defenders. But they have not consistently played to this level for any stretch this year, and certainly of late.

The Knicks have played like a contender at a far more regular rate, but the loss of Hart is notable. New York is 11-3 when Hart is in the starting lineup this year. He has a knack for getting the back-breaking rebounds to swing a game and doing all the little things necessary for wins.

This spread is a bit too large for my liking, as I give Atlanta a chance to keep things competitive. Instead, I am backing the over of 243.5 in this matchup.

This is a high game total, but rightfully so. Atlanta has been bleeding points defensively, as highlighted by its recent 152-150 regulation loss to the Bulls earlier this week. New York is averaging 120.3 points per game on the season, but Atlanta has allowed more than this in each of its last five games and its last seven losses. The Hawks are giving up an average of 119.8 points per contest, and have struggled to slow down teams less offensively impressive than this Knicks squad. The Hawks also rank third in the league in pace, and will be looking to get out in transition frequently in a matchup they have the athletic advantage.

Expect both these teams to put up points at a high rate and for the winning side to eclipse 130 points by a comfortable margin. The Knicks have shown improvement defensively, but struggled with that at the start of the season. The loss of Hart is noteworthy in this aspect as well. The over has hit in 35 of their combined 62 games this season.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 243.5 Points (-110)