The Denver Nuggets lost a thriller to the Orlando Magic on Saturday, but they’ll look to get back on track when they traverse the state of Florida to face the Miami Heat tonight.
Both teams have been elite on offense throughout the 2025-26 campaign, and my Nuggets vs. Heat predictions expect a high-scoring game in South Beach.
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Here are my best free NBA picks for this cross-conference clash on Monday, December 29, from Kaseya Center.
Nuggets vs Heat prediction
Nuggets vs Heat best bet: Over 245 (-110)
The Denver Nuggets sport the Association’s top offensive rating at 124 and rank first in points per game at 125.8. The Nuggets have unsurprisingly hit the Over in 21 of 31 games, including three straight and seven of the last 10.
On the other side of the ball, Denver has a defensive rating of 118.1, putting it 20th in the league. That’s music to the Miami Heat’s ears.
The Heat rank sixth in points per game at 120.2, and Miami has hit the Over in 16 of 32 games, including three of its last five.
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That percentage would be higher if not for Miami’s third-ranked defensive rating (113), but the Nuggets have shown they can put up buckets against everyone.
These teams have combined to average one more point than tonight’s point total, and I’m taking the Over when two of the Association’s top-scoring offenses collide.
Nuggets vs Heat same-game parlay
Tim Hardaway Jr. has made the most of his new opportunities, taking on an increased role with Cameron Johnson sidelined. Hardaway Jr. has scored at least 19 points in four straight games, reaching the 20-point threshold three times in that span.
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Davion Mitchell is averaging a career-high 7.3 assists per game this season, and he’s handed out at least eight assists in 15 of 30 games. The Heat will need to score plenty of points to keep up with Denver’s potent offensive attack, so I’m betting Mitchell gets teammates involved early and often.
Nuggets vs Heat SGP
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 15.5 points
Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 assists
Our “from downtown” SGP: Hooray for Jaime
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has posted strong numbers across his last six games. In that span, he’s averaged 20.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, good for 27.5 PRA. With Tyler Herro still out of action, expect Jaquez Jr. to see big minutes and rack up counting stats with ease.
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Nuggets vs Heat SGP
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 15.5 points
Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 assists
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 24.5 points+rebounds+assists
Nuggets vs Heat odds
Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-105) | Heat +2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Nuggets -130 | Heat +110
Over/Under: Over 245 | Under 245
Nuggets vs Heat betting trend to know
The Denver Nuggets have hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 39 away games (+16.60 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Heat.
How to watch Nuggets vs Heat
Location
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Date
Monday, December 29, 2025
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ALT2, FDSN SU
Nuggets vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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