Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup between the Thunder and the Hawks.

The Thunder are hosting the Hawks on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 17.5 points and this game carries a total of 233.5 points.

Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.

Thunder vs. Hawks preview, prediction

This will be the second and final time of the season that the Thunder and Hawks will go head-to-head. In the first matchup on Oct. 25, Oklahoma City defeated Atlanta 117-100 on its home floor. The defending champion Thunder are 27-5 and lead the league in net rating this season by a solid margin.

Two of those five losses came against the Spurs and San Antonio is the only team to defeat Oklahoma City on its home floor this season, with that loss just coming on Christmas Day. The Thunder are 17-1 at home with a huge 17.5-point margin of victory, both of which are the best marks in the NBA.

Oklahoma City just had a home game yesterday vs. the 76ers and the Thunder blew out Philadelphia 129-104. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another masterful season, averaging 32 PPG on 55.6% shooting and Oklahoma City’s big three of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will all be active tonight, despite this being the team’s second game in two nights.

The Hawks are the more rested team, as they haven’t played since Friday. However, Atlanta lost to the Knicks that night, marking the Hawks sixth consecutive loss and eighth loss in their last 10. For the season, Atlanta is 15-18 and the team ranks 18th in net rating.

To make matters worse, Atlanta is going to be very shorthanded tonight with Jalen Johnson (illness), Kristaps Porzingis (illness) and Trae Young (quad) all out. Young being sidelined actually is a plus for the Hawks, as the guard ranks dead last in plus/minus for the team and they are just 2-8 with him active this season, but Johnson being unavailable is a massive loss. This season, the forward has been one of the NBA’s most improved players, averaging a near triple-double of 23.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, all of which are career-highs for Johnson.

Atlanta suffers on both ends of the floor with Johnson missing and with him inactive this season, the Hawks are 1-2 with both of those losses being by at least 17 points. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu will lead the way for Atlanta tonight and while these three are all solid players, this depleted Hawks team is no match for the Thunder on their home floor and this game could get out of hand quickly.

Thunder vs. Hawks pick, best bet

Even though they played yesterday, the Thunder are going to win this game convincingly and backing Oklahoma City to cover this 17.5-point spread is wise.

Over the last two seasons, the Thunder are a league-best 47-21-2 ATS at home.

Best Bet: Thunder -17.5 (-108)