Nikola Jokic will play for the Denver Nuggets again in 2025, and that’s the biggest news of Tuesday, but what will the team do in the short-term without their three-time MVP, and how will his absence impact their outlook?
To be blunt, given how the injury initially looked during Monday’s loss to the Heat, the Nuggets are lucky Jokic will play again this season. His knee hyperextension resulted in a bone bruise that will cost him at least four weeks. It could have been much worse, like involving the ligaments and structure of his knee.
Similarly, any wins the Nuggets are able to score without Jokic should be considered, in a way, lucky. That’s not to say the team isn’t capable, but as hopeful first-time All-Star Jamal Murray said on Monday, “Obviously, he’s not just a big part of what we do, but almost everything that we do.”
Nuggets will not go winless without Jokic, but even if they lost their next 15 games in a row while Jokic awaits his reevaluation on Jan. 26, Denver should be okay.
The math is actually pretty simple on this. The Nuggets currently sit at 22-10. They went 12-3 before Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon went down within a week of each other with leg injuries — each of whom is expected to return shortly. Cameron Johnson, Murray and Jokic have been straining and clawing since, keeping the Nuggets at third in the West.
Let’s say the Nuggets do somehow lose 15 straight games without Jokic; that would place the team at 22-25 by the time they get fully healthy. If the team stays that way and you extrapolate their early-season record over the course of the first month to the final six weeks, the Nuggets would go about 28-6 over their final 34 games, giving them a record of 50-32. Sound familiar? That’s what Denver’s record was last year, which scored them the No. 4 seed, home court in the first round.
Now the Nuggets do play tougher competition starting about the last week of January and that stays true for the rest of the slate. But just as the ending will be tougher than the start was, the team isn’t going to lose 15 straight. Of those 15 games ahead, only five of those games are against playoff teams and four are from the East. So the Nuggets are going to have some chances to bank some extra wins, which is needed, given Jokic could miss more time than just 28 days, another player could get hurt, or the team may act with extra caution about rest with their team for the home stretch.
You also have to consider the West is pacing slightly ahead of where it was last year, with Minnesota’s 49 wins last year good for No. 6, That’s the spot they currently occupy with a better winning percentage now than last year. The dropoff after them to the Suns, Warriors and rest is pretty big, giving the Nuggets a really nice chance to slide into the No. 6 seed even in a really bad situation — which this is.
The magic number to get in may as well be 49 — only one team in NBA history has missed the playoffs while tallying that many wins in a season and that happened when the Denver team was still called the Rockets, playing their home games at what is now Ellie Caulkins Opera House.
Six is a great seed because it’s the lowest seed without having to go through the Play-In where you avoid the No. 1 seed in the first two rounds — bumping into the No. 2 in the second rather than the first if you landed No. 7 via the Play-In. Meanwhile, the No. 4 or No. 5 gets the luxury of playing the top seed in Round 2, a fate we saw befall the Nuggets last year. They’ll want to avoid the Thunder and Spurs for as long as possible, but the Jokic injury likely guarantees a matchup with at least one of them earlier than the Western Conference Finals.
Enough math. What does it look like for the Nuggets on the floor?
David Adelman should absolutely go all out and pick his spots in the coming games when the Nuggets play bottom-feeders like Brooklyn, New Orleans, Washington (twice) and Dallas. I am advising Denver to punt on some tougher foes, especially as part of back-to-backs and during this hellish seven-game road trip. If the Nuggets are able to score five wins right there, that’d help them immensely.
So if you’re a fan of the team, though it may be your initial reaction to want to see Murray unleashed, I advise you not to be greedy and keep the main goal of a title in mind. Accept a few beatdowns here. Accept some Murray rest. Accept Tim Hardaway Jr. not getting overextended in his minutes despite incredible play. Allow for a possible slower timeline on Braun and Gordon. Stay patient.
The good news is that the Nuggets are better equipped for this awful situation than they have been in years because of Jonas Valanciunas. While the big man won’t wow you with a triple-double every night, he averaged a double-double last year in limited starts and has consistently averaged both double figures in scoring and rebounds when starting throughout his 14 years in the NBA.
Valanciunas’ scoring per 36 minutes is at the best mark it has been in seven years. While his rebounding numbers are lower than they’ve been since he was a youngster, it’s worth considering that the Nuggets, who have the league’s best offense, aren’t missing as many shots and allowing for as many offensive rebounds. His rebound percentages are very near where they have been the last few years.
Valanciunas’ nice stats have played to a NET rating of -4.8, meaning the Nuggets are losing his minutes over 100 possessions by about five points. That may sound bad, but the Nuggets have lost the non-Nikola minutes by -9.3, -8.6, -10.4 and -7.9 over the prior four years.
Plus, Valanciunas has already played a ton with Murray since the guard normally staggers to run the second unit. Jokic and Murray’s 835 minutes played together this season rank fourth most in the NBA, with a staggering NET rating of 12.3. Valanciunas and Murray have played 252 minutes together for a NET rating of -7.7. It’s no secret that it’s going to be worse without the league’s best player, but the fact that there’s already some chemistry is great news.
When Gordon comes back, the Nuggets can go small at times with him running center. Or they go big with him next to Val, giving each a bit less time banging. Look for the Nuggets to run this lineup at some point: Murray, Braun, Gordon, Valanciunas and Peyton Watson, who has really stepped up amid all these issues. There could be something there with three solid defenders and a veteran pick-and-roll duo on offense.
All of this is to say the Nuggets, who have played like a team seeking a top draft pick at times without Jokic in the past, shouldn’t be quite that bad this time around. And even if they are, as long as the starting five is healthy come playoff time and the team is in the dance, they’ll have a great chance. Before all the injuries, the Nuggets were top five in both offense and defense — and still, as of now, the top two five-man units in the NBA by NET rating who have played more than 150 minutes together this season are Nuggets’ ones: Jokic-Murray-Johnson-Watson-Jones and Jokic-Murray-Gordon-Johnson-Braun.
