The Miami Heat (18-15) face the Detroit Pistons (25-8) Thursday at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Pistons odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pistons lead 1-0 with 138-135 victory Nov. 29 as 4-point road underdog as Over (240) cashed
The Heat stayed hot Monday, rolling past the Denver Nuggets 147-123 to win a third straight game. Miami covered as 1.5-point home favorites with the Over (245) cashing. G Norman Powell scored 25 points as the Heat pulled away after C Nikola Jokic exited with a knee injury just before halftime. F Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 20, and C Bam Adebayo returned from injury to grab 10 rebounds.
Detroit bounced back from a Sunday loss at the LA Clippers in a big way Tuesday night, rolling past the Los Angeles Lakers 128-106. The Pistons covered as 3-point road favorites with the Under (238.5) cashing. G Cade Cunningham led the way with 27 points and 11 assists, while G Marcus Sasser added a season-high 19. F Isaiah Stewart chipped in 15 as Detroit finished 3-2 on its West Coast swing.
Heat at Pistons odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:29 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Heat +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Pistons -210 (bet $210 to win $100)7Against the spread (ATS): Heat +4.5 (+100) | Pistons -4.5 (-120)Over/Under (O/U): 239.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Pistons key injuries
Heat
FÂ Simone Fontecchio (ankle) questionableGÂ Tyler Herro (toe) outGÂ Pelle Larsso (ankle) outGÂ Terry Rozier (not with team) out
Pistons
GÂ Tobias Harris (hip) doubtfulGÂ Caris LeVert (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Pistons picks and predictionsPrediction
Pistons 117, Heat 113
PASS.
I like the Heat to keep this game tight at home, which is why I’ll take my wager to the spread.
BET HEAT +4.5 (+100).
I’m siding with Miami to cover here, even with Detroit playing good basketball lately. The Pistons earned credit for forcing turnovers and flexing their depth against the Lakers, but that was also a spot where everything tilted their way. Miami comes in playing faster and cleaner offense right now, averaging well over 130 points during its 3-game win streak and pushing the pace in a way that stresses even disciplined defenses.
The Heat’s offense has been extremely efficient, and when they get into rhythm, they don’t let teams breathe. Their shooting numbers line up well against what Detroit typically allows, and Miami has consistently rewarded bettors when it clears its scoring benchmarks. I also keep coming back to the injury factor — if Harris is limited or out, that removes a key stabilizer for Detroit on both ends.
Detroit is good, but it’s still young, and backing them as chalk after an emotional road win feels risky. Miami has veterans who know how to manage these spots, especially when the game turns into a half-court execution test late. I trust the Heat’s shot-making and experience to keep this close.
BET UNDER 239.5 (-110).
Detroit just returned from a long road trip, and those first games home often start slow. Both teams thrive defensively and force turnovers, which can stall rhythm and shorten possessions. The Pistons have gone Under in 6 of its last 8. This profiles as a grind-it-out game that stays below the number.
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