Tim Bontemps thinks the Nuggets will fall into the Play-In picture without Jokic: "It's hard to expect much better than that 36 percent clip"

What was supposed to be a comeback season and a renewed title push in the Nikola Jokic era quickly turned into a nightmare. Heading into the season, few believed in the rookie front-office duo of Ben Tenser and Jon Wallace, but against all odds, they finally managed to add the depth the Denver Nuggets desperately needed.

Most importantly, the 2023 Finals MVP finally received a legitimate backup for the first time in his career in the form of Jonas Valanciunas. The front office also smartly moved off Michael Porter Jr.’s heavy contract, freeing up cap space for players like Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown.

The season started exactly as expected, with the best start in franchise history and career-best performances from Jamal Murray and Jokic. However, just two months into the season, David Adelman’s team hit a wall, losing four starters for extended periods of time.

“Across the past four seasons, Denver is 13-23 without Jokic. It’s hard to expect much better than that 36 percent clip, especially with the other injury issues facing the Nuggets. All of that could upend the West playoff picture, particularly if Denver tumbles into the play-in. (How does an Oklahoma City Thunder–Nuggets first-round matchup sound?),” ESPN’s Tim Bontemps wrote.

Denver is among the worst teams in the league without Jokic

First, Aaron Gordon went down, then Christian Braun, and within the span of a single week, both Jokic and Johnson followed. Of course, Nikola’s absence is by far the biggest blow, and any additional injury at this point would be almost unimaginable.

This was a team that stormed into the season with the best offensive rating in league history, owning the second-best defense in the league and the second-best net rating overall, with the important caveat that they had played the third-easiest schedule in the league, according to ESPN metrics.

That schedule is about to become significantly tougher, and although Braun and Gordon are expected to return within the next 10 days, they will clearly need time to regain rhythm. It’s also worth noting that Murray is dealing with an ankle injury, and it remains unclear whether Valanciunas, at 33 years old, has the stamina to handle heavy NBA minutes.

The on/off numbers, excluding the three-time MVP, paint an even clearer picture. With Jokic on the floor, Denver posts an offensive rating of 126.0 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in the NBA. Without him, that number plummets to 112.3, the fifth-worst in the league.

Defensively, the Nuggets allow 118.7 points per 100 possessions with the Joker on the floor, compared to 116.7 without him. Overall, that leaves Denver with a -4.5 net rating in non-Jokic minutes, which ranks as the fifth-worst in the league, according to StatMuse.

Still, this situation could paradoxically turn out to be a positive for the Nuggets. A slide into the Play-In could make them extremely dangerous, an idea echoed by Carmelo Anthony, who believes Jokic’s injury is a league-wide issue.

“For me, this is not about whether Denver can survive. It’s really about what this moment reveals for the other guys, about Denver’s identity, about the margins, about their championship pedigree. … Now, we have to figure out as a team where this puts us because Joker being out, this changes the geometry, I think, of the whole league,” Anthony said on the “NBA on NBC and Peacock” show.

Double-edged sword

If Jokic’s injury lingers and Denver slides into a losing streak, then survives the Play-In late in the season, the Nuggets could become a land mine for the rest of the league, especially for teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, who could be “rewarded” for strong regular seasons by drawing a healthy Denver squad in the first round.

Of course, that scenario is a double-edged sword. In a season designed to further crown Jokic’s prime, the Nuggets could instead be forced into a brutal first-round matchup against a contender due to sheer misfortune, potentially leaving them empty-handed once again.

This story was originally published by Basketball Network on Jan 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the Latest News section. Add Basketball Network as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Tim Bontemps thinks the Nuggets will fall into the Play-In picture without Jokic: “It’s hard to expect much better than that 36 percent clip”

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