Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between Brooklyn Nets and the Washington Wizards with his favorite prop bets.
The start of the calendar year is a time for optimism, as people look clear-eyed at the year ahead. Where NBA teams fit into that mood is less clear, since the league operates on an October-to-June calendar, but the start of the year is a good time to celebrate youth and potential, so it’s fitting that the January 2 slate begins with a matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Washington Wizards, two of the youngest teams in basketball.
Each team’s young core has started to make some strides as of late: the Nets rank second in the league in defensive rating in the last 10 games, and the Wizards have gone a solid 5-5.
The game will start at 7 p.m. ET in Washington. Brooklyn will be without arguably its three best players, with Michael Porter Jr. (illness), Nic Claxton (personal), and Cam Thomas (injury management) out, while the Wizards will sit Kyshawn George (hip), Corey Kispert (hamstring), and Cam Whitmore (deep vein thrombosis).
Washington is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 224.5. The Nets are +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve detailed my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s matchup of youngsters.
Dëmin missed Brooklyn’s 120-96 loss to the Houston Rockets last night with lower back soreness, but given that he wasn’t listed on the injury report at all for tonight’s game, he should be a full go. Prior to his injury, the Russian was on a tear, scoring 15 or more points in four of his last six games while canning 40.0% of his three-pointers. His usage should also be higher tonight, given that the Nets will be without Claxton for the first time, so as long as he doesn’t shoot five-for-18 from the field like he did on December 18, he won’t even have to be particularly efficient to reach 15 points.
It’s not like the Wizards have a particularly good defense, even though they’ve been competitive over the last couple of weeks. Across that span, Washington has ranked just 20th in defensive rating. Plus, since Dëmin is a point guard who ranks 23rd in three-point attempt rate, he should be able to avoid the Wizards’ best defender, second-year center Alex Sarr. In the last 10 games, Washington has allowed the second-most wide-open threes, and Dëmin has canned such shots at a respectable 37.7% clip this season. Plus, it has allowed among the most corner threes, where Dëmin has made half of his shots on low volume.
Sarr is on a blocking tear, having rejected three or more shots in four of his last five games, and he actually leads the league in blocks per game since fellow Frenchman Victor Wembanyama hasn’t played enough minutes to qualify. All in all, he has three or more rejections in 10 of his 23 games (+130 implied odds), and he ranks sixth in the league in contested two-point shots. In general, the Wizards have also conceded an above-average number of shots within eight feet of the basket, which should give Sarr more opportunities for blocks.
On paper, Brooklyn isn’t the easiest matchup for blocks, given that it has been rejected the 12th-fewest times this season and attempts a below-average number of shots within eight feet. However, with Claxton off the floor, opponents’ block percentage skyrockets from 8.4% to 13.2%, and because Claxton has been healthy, the sample sizes (934 minutes on, 555 minutes off) are fairly sizable. The Nets don’t have an experienced backup center, as Day’Ron Sharpe has only started 14 games in his five-season career.
Bub Carrington 5+ Assists (+113)
Prior to his injury, George had been serving as Washington’s primary playmaker, dishing out six or more dimes in each of his final five full games before going down. In the three games since, the duty has fallen more on Carrington, who’s dished out five or more assists in two of the last three games. Of course, the sample sizes are small, but his touches increased slightly from 56.3 per game prior to George’s injury to 59.7 across the three games since and his potential assists from 7.1 to 9.0. In general, the Wizards don’t pass much, but if there’s any player suited to get to five assists, it’s Carrington.
It might be unsurprising given its youth and inexperience, but Brooklyn just hasn’t been great at stopping ball movement. This season, the Nets have allowed the 10th-most assists per game, and though opponents have posted a lower assist percentage without all three of their absent players, they’ve also shot a better percentage without Claxton and Porter. Plus, the Nets have been a below-average team at defending the roll man in pick-and-roll, and Carrington likes to throw passes to Sarr, one of the NBA’s more active roll men.