The Miami Heat have the league’s 13th-best offense. (Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise/Imagn Images)
How the Miami Heat became a top-15 offense in the sport has taken the league by storm.
With the help of consultant Noah LaRoche, the Heat installed a fast-paced, free-flowing offense that all but eliminated the use of ball-screens — a staple in practically every offense. As a result, Miami has the league’s No. 13 offense, scoring 140-plus points seven times, including twice in the last four games.
But it has struggled to break this damning trend 34 games into the season.
Heat offense has struggled against good defenses:
(Mandatory Credit: Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Through 34 games, the Heat have played the NBA’s seventh-hardest schedule, according to Dunks & Threes. But while they grade as a top-13 unit, D&T’s offensive rating metric, which adjusts for strength of schedule, has the Heat at No. 19.
The reason?! Their struggle against the league’s best defenses.
Miami is on the heels of a 118-112 win against the Detroit Pistons on New Year’s Day. It was their best win of the season. But it was also one of their most complete games against a Pistons defense that’s a top-3 unit.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Heat are just 2-7 against top-10 defenses this season, the sixth-worst record in the NBA. Better yet, they are dead last in offensive rating in those games, scoring just 105.9 points per 100 possessions. Their 51.2 effective field goal percentage against top-10 defenses is better than only Utah, Charlotte, Cleveland, Orlando and Memphis.
Including its win against Detroit, Miami has sported a 116.0 offensive rating — league average — just once. Ironically enough, that came in the Heat’s first meeting against Detroit (120.5 ORTG) in late November, a 138-135 loss. Their next best? On New Year’s Day against the Pistons — a 109.5 offensive rating, a 30th percentile output.
In those nine games, they have scored fewer than 106.0 per 100 possessions six times, including less than 102.0 thrice.
How this affects Heat’s high-end outlook:
(Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
Good point-of-attack defenses — like the feisty Raptors, star-studded Spurs and pesky Magic — have given them fits. When you face teams that can contain dribble-drives and prevent paint touches, the less strain the back line will face.
Miami hasn’t been able to create — and, thus, exploit — many advantages against good defenses. Well, that definitely affects the Heat’s high-end outlook because the postseason will likely be filled with plenty of capable units who will inevitably adjust over a seven-game series.
There’s plenty of unpredictability that Miami’s offense presents. But the pace, generally, slows down in the postseason. And the Heat’s offense becomes painfully average, at best, when the pace slows down. It unquestionably lowers their ceiling, regardless of how healthy they are.
We will see how the Miami Heat fare against another top-10 defensive unit Saturday against the Minnesota Timberwolves, their first of two matchups over the next week.
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