Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Warriors at Clippers on Monday.
Right now, there seems to be a pretty clear top six in the Western Conference, as well as a pretty clear bottom five, and the Play-In Tournament race has further separation within. If there’s any shakeup in the last 50ish games of the season, though, it’s likely to come from the LA Clippers, who are 12th in the West right now but have been one of basketball’s hottest teams as of late and have no reason to tank.
With the exception of next week’s road games against the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons, the Clippers are in the middle of a pretty doable stretch of the season, which begins tonight with a 10 p.m. ET clash against the Golden State Warriors. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
LA’s only major injury absence is Derrick Jones Jr., who re-sprained his MCL, though James Harden (shoulder) is questionable. The Warriors, meanwhile, should have a completely healthy roster with the exception of Seth Curry (thigh).
Golden State is ever-so-slightly favored at DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 224.5. The Clippers are +120 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s Pacific Division matchup and offer my prediction.
Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers preview, prediction
The Warriors rested all three of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green on Friday night and got trounced by the Oklahoma City Thunder, losing 131-94, but the decision appeared to pay off the following night in a 123-114 win over the Utah Jazz. Curry has continued to defy any signs of age, as he’s averaging 30.2 points per game on 46-41-94 shooting splits across his last 10 games. In general, Golden State’s new starting lineup (Curry, Butler, Green, Moses Moody, and Quinten Post) has worked, as the team is 6-3 since Steve Kerr implemented it. The Warriors’ depth, size, and age is still a problem, but as the starting lineup continues to develop chemistry, it could patch up some of its issues.
LA saw its six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a blowout defeat against the Boston Celtics, but all in all, things are pointing up for the Clippers after a miserable start to the season. 34-year-old Kawhi Leonard has played arguably the best basketball of his career, dropping 40-plus points three times over his last seven games and averaging 36.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game on 51-42-94 shooting splits across that span. Brook Lopez held down the fort well enough in his six-game starting stint, and Ivica Zubac made a quicker-than-expected return from the Grade 2 ankle sprain that he suffered on December 20. It remains to be seen how effective he’ll be tonight, though it’s likely he’ll still be on a minutes restriction.
Warriors at Clippers pick, best bet
While the Clippers’ defeat to Boston was disappointing — especially defensively — it was also largely the product of unsustainably hot shooting, as the Celtics shot 24-for-51 (47.1%) from beyond the arc. It was also a surprisingly quiet Leonard performance, as he had just 22 points on six-for-17 accuracy. Still, even with the lopsided defeat taken into account, LA has posted the league’s second-best net rating across the last seven games, a stat powered mostly by a league-best offense. That offense isn’t entirely sustainable — the Clippers have hit a league-best 46.3% of their wide-open threes across the last seven games — but the strong finishing could be, especially now that Zubac is back. The Croatian ranks second on the team and eighth in the league in interior on-ball gravity, and he’s shooting 71.0% at the rim this season.
LA’s interior edge could be somewhat muted with everyone on Golden State healthy. This season, the Curry-Butler-Green-Moody-Post lineup has posted a 53.0% rebounding percentage in 69 minutes, the 16th-highest of the 82 lineups to play at least 60 minutes together (and, critically, higher than any Clippers unit). The Warriors have also allowed the 10th-fewest attempts in the restricted area across the last 10 games, two places better than LA, and both teams have allowed a fairly high percentage. The Clippers could still have a slight edge in the non-restricted paint, since Golden State attempts the league’s fewest floaters. All in all, LA’s likely starting five averages 2.7 more points in the paint per game than the Warriors’.
As with the Clippers’ game against Boston, shooting will be key. That’s an area in which LA is likely for regression, given that its improvement in wide-open three-point accuracy hasn’t been combined with an increase in frequency of such easy looks. It’s also an area in which the Warriors should have an edge: they’ve attempted the league’s third-most wide-open threes, an effect of having Curry, who leads the league in off-ball perimeter gravity. That’ll put a lot of pressure on Kris Dunn, who Curry torched for 32 points on eight-for-18 shooting (eight-for-12 from deep) in 72.8 partial possessions last season. Historically, Leonard has been more effective against Butler than the other way around, and Harden has been reasonably productive, but if it comes down to Curry, LA doesn’t have an effective Curry-stopper.
The game should be close, especially if the Clippers can find a way to feed the ball down to Zubac against the undersized Post. But Golden State’s recent sharpness on the boards, combined with Zubac’s minutes restriction, means its weaknesses are minimized, and LA is even older so even less likely to take advantage of transition opportunities. Curry still has the ability to will the Warriors on any given night.
Best bet: Golden State Warriors -2.5 (-115)