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Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks on during the second half of the game against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center on December 29, 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Jayson Tatum-less Boston Celtics (23-12) clinched the second seed with their 115-101 win over the Chicago Bulls on Monday — an unfathomable scenario at the start of the season. When Tatum returns, Boston will likely be the favorite to represent the East in the 2026 NBA Finals. Yet, analytics guru Tom Haberstroh has floated a Giannis Antetokounmpo to Celtics trade idea involving a direct swap with Jaylen Brown, while explaining why the Milwaukee Bucks may stand to benefit more from such a move.
Haberstroh reasoned that, while a year ago, the Celtics would have said “say yes in a heartbeat” to a potential swap between Brown ($53.1M) and Antetokounmpo ($54.1M), the “calculus has flipped” amid Brown’s ongoing MVP-esque season.
Will Celtics Turn Down Idea?
The analytics guru also cited Antetokounmpo’s recent injury history — the two-time MVP has missed 35 games since 2022-23 — as a reason for Boston to be skeptical.
“Any team acquiring Giannis has to be a little nervous about the downside risk,” Haberstroh wrote in his Substack feature titled “Giannis For Jaylen. Who Says No?”
“He just turned 31,” Haberstroh said of Antetokounmpo. “He has missed one in three games this season dealing with a nagging calf injury that keeps popping up on the injury report. Calf strains are increasingly being monitored for Achilles tear risk even if the science is mixed.”
“Big picture, his health record isn’t sparkling clean. Teams looking to acquire him have to be able to stomach the fact that he has been injured in two of the last three playoff runs. ”
Bucks Have Decision to Make
Further to Haberstroh’s point, Antetokounmpo has failed to play even five playoff games since 2022, when his Bucks lost to the Celtics in the second round.
Haberstroh concluded that Brad Stevens will likely turn down the Giannis Antetokounmpo to Celtics idea as Brown is two years younger, is currently playing at an MVP level and better fits the Celtics’ “immaculate” culture, which he fears would be compromised by taking away the 2024 Finals MVP from the equation.
On the flipside, Haberstroh made a case for Milwaukee to turn down the “thought experiment” if they intend to target younger stars instead of a 29-year-old Brown. He argued that teams such as the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are in a much better position to help the Bucks start their rebuild.
There’s growing uncertainty that the Bucks will actually pull the trigger on a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade before the Feb. 5 deadline, with league insiders suggesting that the blockbuster move could be held off until the offseason. In the meantime, the loyal Antetokounmpo is committed to finishing the season with the Bucks.
“I’m still locked in, locked in on my teammates,” Antetokounmpo told reporters on Dec. 18 in response to the trade rumors.
Sai Mohan covers the NBA for Heavy.com. Based in Portugal, Sai is a seasoned sports writer with nearly two decades of publishing experience, including bylines at Yardbarker, FanSided’s Hoops Habit, International Business Times, Hindustan Times and more. More about Sai Mohan
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