Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between Miami Heat and the Minnesota Timberwolves with his favorite prop bets.
As the midpoint of the NBA season nears, both conferences are embroiled in tight seeding battles. In the West, the third-seeded Denver Nuggets are just one game ahead of the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, and in the East, the fifth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers, sixth-seeded Orlando Magic, and seventh-seeded Miami Heat are all tied, with the eighth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers a further half-game behind. It’s early, of course, but these teams feel evenly-matched enough that this jostling for positioning could last the rest of the season.
Two of those teams face off today, with the Timberwolves hosting the Heat at 8 p.m. ET. Both teams should be mostly healthy: Anthony Edwards, who’s questionable with foot injury management, is the only key rotation player on Minnesota’s injury report, while the Heat will only be without Jaime Jaquez Jr., who’s dealing with an ankle sprain.
Even with Edwards’ status up in the air, Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 237.5. Miami is +130 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve detailed my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s inter-conference clash.
Tyler Herro U16.5 Points (-104)
Herro will return tonight after missing 11 games with a toe contusion, and while his return will undoubtedly be a boost for the Heat, they don’t entirely need him. All in all, they’ve been a positive surprise this season, staying competitive in the Eastern Conference despite the 2025 All-Star playing just six games. He’ll almost certainly be on a minutes restriction of some kind, and he might come off the bench. While he hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points since March 21, 2025, he hadn’t been on much of a restriction, other than in his first game back this season on November 24.
Plus, the Timberwolves’ defense is pretty strong, ranking in the league’s top 10 in defensive rating for the fourth consecutive season (which, not so coincidentally, aligns with Rudy Gobert’s arrival in Minnesota). In addition to an elite rim protector manning the middle, the Timberwolves also have two elite perimeter stoppers in Edwards (if he plays) and Jaden McDaniels. Though Herro had lots of success against McDaniels across the teams’ two matchups last season, McDaniels’ perimeter prowess shouldn’t be doubted, and he’s done a great job locking down players of similar play-style and ability, including Devin Booker and Keyonte George.
Rudy Gobert 25+ Points + Rebounds (-114)
Even in his age-34 season, Gobert still continues to be an integral part of the team because he does all the little things well. Not only does he have arguably the strongest statistical case to win his record-breaking fifth Defensive Player of the Year trophy, he’s back to peak effectiveness offensively, leading the league in field goal percentage for the fourth time and averaging a double-double for the 10th straight season. He’s had 25 or more P/R in each of his last two games and in eight of his last 16 overall, dating back to the start of December.
Miami, meanwhile, just isn’t a good matchup against a big team like Minnesota, especially as Bam Adebayo continues to operate farther from the basket on offense. This season, the Heat have allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game, and they rank just 18th in rebounding percentage overall. Kel’el Ware is good — in fact, his 22.1% rebounding percentage leads all qualified players — but his relatively low workload still leaves Miami 23 minutes per game to operate with a smaller player in Adebayo or Nikola Jović at center. Plus, Miami has been merely a league-average rim-protecting team, and Gobert operates almost solely in the interior.
Norman Powell O21.5 Points (-123)
For all that I’ve previously written about the Timberwolves’ defense and its ability to slow down opposing guards, 21.5 points is a very low line for Powell, who’s averaging a career-high 24.4 points per game this season and is making a strong case to be selected for his first All-Star game at the age of 32. Just when he seemed to slow down, shooting just 34.8% from downtown across a 16-game stretch between November 17 and December 26, he’s picked it back up, canning 51.2% of his deep tries over his last five games and averaging 27.8 points per game across that span. Minnesota is great at slowing down opposing three-point shooters — Powell’s best weapon — but he’s also capable of getting to the line, and the Timberwolves can be pretty foul-prone. Minnesota doesn’t have quite enough advantages to stop a guy who has scored fewer than 22 points just 11 times this season.