Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s matchup between the Kings and the Mavericks.
The Kings are hosting the Mavericks on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 232.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Kings preview, prediction
The Kings and Mavericks just faced each other for the first time this season on December 27th in Sacramento as the Kings won that game 113-107. Anthony Davis missed this game for Dallas, but he will be active tonight. Also, Zach LaVine missed that first matchup between these teams, but he will be available tonight in just his second game back from a nine-game absence due to an ankle injury. His return may not be good news for this Kings team that is 8-28 and ranks dead last in net rating this season.
Sacramento is 5-19 with LaVine active this season, and with him on the floor, the team’s net rating is a terrible -13.0 compared to -10.5 with him off. In his return from the ankle injury this past Sunday vs. the Bucks, LaVine scored 20 points, but the Kings lost 115-98. The guard’s defense has been pitiful and there have already been rumors about Sacramento looking to move LaVine before next month’s trade deadline. In the meantime, the veteran should continue to see big minutes as the team attempts to improve his trade stock. Simply, the Kings are likely to continue to be a mess.
While LaVine being available for this matchup is a downgrade for Sacramento, Anthony Davis being available for the Mavericks this time around is a plus for the club. Dallas is 13-23 and ranks 23rd in net rating this season, but with Davis active, the team is 9-9 and most recently secured a 110-104 win over the Rockets this past Saturday night. Alperen Sengun (ankle) got injured only a minute into this contest, but Dallas beating Houston was impressive nonetheless. This season, the Rockets are 22-11 and rank second in net rating.
The Mavericks have now beaten Houston twice with Davis active this season, and they also have wins against the Nuggets and the Pistons with Davis in the lineup. The ex-Laker is leading Dallas with 20.4 PPG while Cooper Flagg has been right behind Davis with 18.9 PPG. Flagg has hit a cold streak with 15 points or less in three in a row, but this matchup vs. the Kings is exactly what the doctor ordered, and he and Davis both should score the ball with ease tonight.
Mavericks vs. Kings pick, best bet
After losing to the Kings last month, the Mavericks should get revenge tonight.
Dallas is a decent 9-9 ATS with Davis active this season and the Mavericks should be able to cover this 4.5-point spread.
Best Bet: Mavericks -4.5 (-118)