Sam Presti hoarded so many draft picks during the Thunder’s rebuild that it’s hard to remember which is what and where they all came from.
Like this Jazz pick, for example.
The Thunder, suddenly mortal, it seems, hosts the Jazz on Wednesday night in a game with fairly large lottery implications. A refresher: If Utah’s 2026 first-round pick lands in the top eight, the Jazz keeps it. If it falls to the ninth slot or below, the Thunder gets it.
Why does the Jazz find itself in this precarious situation? Why is the Thunder wanting the Jazz to win against 28 other teams?
Because of Derrick Favors.
Order book on the Thunder’s road to NBA title
Shoutout to Favors, by the way, who had a solid if not spectacular 12-year NBA career. A career that ended in the 2021-22 season, in which Favors played in 39 games for the Thunder. If you don’t remember Favors in Thunder blue, that’s OK. Only the sickos do.
The Thunder acquired Favors from the Jazz a day after the 2021 draft. Not because OKC was trying to shore up its front court, but because Utah needed somewhere to offload Favors’ $9.7 million contract. OKC’s doors were open as a dumping ground for bad money in exchange for future draft capital.
In this case, the Jazz sent the Thunder a future first-round pick with the following parameters: top-10 protected in 2024 and 2025 and top-eight protected in 2026. And if the pick still hasn’t conveyed by 2026 … POOF. It’s gone.
Utah has twice denied the Thunder the pick, and over the next several months we’ll see if the Jazz can shed the Favors debt completely. Utah has every incentive to tank to keep its pick.
Regardless, Presti’s process behind making the trade was sound. Another “bite at the apple,” as he’d say. It’s not like Favors was a stain on OKC’s salary sheet. The Thunder eventually dealt Favors to Houston, which waived him.
Keeping the pick would mean way more to Utah than it would to OKC, should the pick fall outside of the top eight.
The last thing the defending champs need is a lottery pick or two — we’ll see where the Clippers pick lands — but this was Presti’s prescience during the rebuild. To take advantage of other teams’ short-term needs by hedging against their futures. Because if and when the Thunder got good, the prospect of adding quality players on controllable contracts would be invaluable.
Rostering Favors would be a small price to pay for having pretty good odds at netting another first-round pick.
Those odds aren’t looking so good now.
Utah is amid a four-game skid, soon to be five assuming another loss in Oklahoma City.
As of Tuesday morning, the Jazz is sixth in the reverse standings (remember when we only talked about the standings in an upside-down sense?). The Clippers, which owe their first-round pick to the Thunder, are ninth in the reverse standings having won seven of their last 10. Dreams of the Thunder adding an AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cam Boozer have all but evaporated.
If the Jazz finishes with the sixth-worst record, Utah will have a 95.8% chance of landing a top-eight pick. In other words, a 95.8% chance of keeping its pick rather than surrendering it to Oklahoma City.
If the Jazz can climb/fall to fifth in the reverse standings, there’s a 99.4% chance that Utah keeps its pick. Past that, if you’re in the bottom four your pick can fall to no lower than seventh.
Now let’s go the other way. The Thunder’s chances of getting the Jazz’s pick jumps to 13.9% if the Jazz finishes seventh in the reverse standings as opposed to six (4.2% chance for the Thunder).
OKC has a 42% chance of sniping the pick if Utah finishes eighth in the reverse standings.
After a spunky start, it looked like the Jazz might have to sweat this out. But levers have been pulled in Salt Lake City, and now the bottom is falling out.
The Derrick Favors bill might never come due.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.