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The Warriors played two solid games in almost identical ways. But for one simple reason, the results were split.
In the Clippers game on Monday, the Warriors missed their 3-pointers. Against the Bucks on Wednesday, they made them.
In both games, the Warriors kept their turnovers in the single digits. They defended well and opportunistically crashed the glass. But they lost by a point in the Intuit Dome because they shot a season-low 24.4% from 3-point land, and they blew out Milwaukee by hitting 18 of 47 treys (38%).
The Warriors (20-18) started their eight-game homestand with a 120-113 victory. A lot has gone into their middling 20-18 record — most notably an alarming turnover rate and an 8-12 clutch record. But perhaps the most overlooked attribute that has sunk the Warriors is their inability to make open shots.
The Warriors take more 3-pointers than anyone, but entered Wednesday ranked 15th in the league in 3-point percentage. And it’s possible that changes in the form of positive regression.
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“I do think that our shooting will improve,” head coach Steve Kerr said. “Because we have good shooters…I believe we’re a much better shooting team than we’ve shown this year so far. And if we can stay healthy and keep this rhythm going, I think those numbers will go up. I like the shots we’re getting. I think what we’re doing makes sense. We’re playing through Jimmy [Butler] and Steph [Curry], which we’re always going to do, and those two guys create a lot of shots for people.”
Kerr singled out veterans Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton as reasons to believe in an uptick in 3-point accuracy. They combined to shoot 7-for-13 against Milwaukee, continuing a trend of strong bench performances during the team’s 7-3 stretch.
Horford, a 38% 3-point shooter since he expanded his range a decade ago, hit just 29.8% of his three-balls in his first 13 games as a Warrior. Melton has likewise struggled as he re-acclimates from the ACL injury that sidelined him for over a year; he was shooting 22% from deep before the Bucks burst.
Buddy Hield has also dragged the team’s percentages down. He’s out of the rotation now because of his career-low 32.4% stretch from range.
But evidence to support Kerr’s inclination goes deeper than any individual player.
The quality of shots the Warriors generate are generally clean. Their motion system around Steph Curry is a beacon for open 3s. Just think of all the times two defenders swarm to Curry, leaving their man wide open above the break or in the corner.
Jimmy Butler, likewise, is elite at sucking a defense into the paint and spraying out passes to shooters spotting up. Isolating Butler and surrounding him with shooting has been a recipe for productive offense for years, and the Warriors have started to lean into that more recently. Either Curry and Draymond Green are on the court or Butler is engineering offense with spacing around him; the Warriors don’t have Klay Thompson-level shooters, but they have players who should be able to stick open jumpers, nonetheless.
Many of the Warriors’ open shots are coming from the corners, which are considered among the most efficient shots in basketball. Golden State attempts the second-most corner 3s in the league, per Cleaning The Glass, up from ninth last season. The last time the Warriors ranked in the top-five in corner 3s attempted was 2015-16, their 73-win season.
Catch-and-shoot opportunities in the corner are tailor-made for Golden State’s role players. They just need to hit them more consistently.
If Quinten Post, Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Melton, and Horford go 14-for-30 (46.7%) like they did against Milwaukee, the Warriors are going to look great. If they combine to go 3-for-18 (16.7%) like they did in Los Angeles? Not so much.
Golden State is 14-4 when making at least 18 3-pointers. As Kerr said after the Bucks win, sometimes the ball goes in, and sometimes it doesn’t.
The Warriors are putting themselves in position to put the ball in the hoop much more accurately than they have so far. If the numbers catch up, maybe wins will, too.
“You’re only as good as the shots that go in,” Curry said. “I’d like to have the confidence and the belief that we are [bettter than average]. But trying to create good shots, consistent, good looks for good shooters — you stick with that, you’d hope that would build over the course of a stretch of games.”