Jan. 11, 2026, 11:48 a.m. ET

The Milwaukee Bucks (17-21) end their 4-game road trip against the Denver Nuggets (25-13) Sunday. Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Bucks vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 season series: Tied 1-1

Milwaukee pulled off a 105-101 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers Friday while covering as a 3-point road underdog with the Under (227.5) cashing. Kevin Porter Jr. led the Bucks with 22 points while Giannis Antetokounmpo had 21. The Bucks held the Lakers to just 39-of-91 (43%) shooting from the field.

Denver was dominated 110-87 by the Atlanta Hawks Friday, failing to cover as a 3-point home underdog as the Under (229.5) hit. F Peyton Watson put up 25 points and 11 boards, but he was the only Nugget to score over 15 points in the loss. The Nuggets turned the ball over 19 times, leading to 18 points for Atlanta, while also giving up 56 points in the paint.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Bucks at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:38 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bucks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nuggets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -1.5 (-118) | Nuggets +1.5 (-102)Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Bucks at Nuggets key injuries

Bucks

G Kevin Porter Jr. (hip) probableF Taurean Prince (neck) out

Nuggets

G Christian Braun (ankle) probableF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) probableF Cameron Johnson (knee) outC Nikola Jokic (knee) outG Jamal Murray (ankle) questionableC Jonas Valanciunas (calf) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bucks at Nuggets picks and predictionsPrediction

Bucks 115, Nuggets 113

LEAN BUCKS (-135).

Milwaukee is the hotter team, sitting at 3-1 in its last 4 games, while Denver is just 2-3 in its last 5 overall. Similarly, the Bucks are 2-1 in their last 3 matchups against Denver, so with Denver’s best player, C Nikola Jokic still out, look for Milwaukee to pick up the win here.

The Nuggets will have no answer for the dominance of Antetokounmpo, so look for him to go off and lead the Bucks to the win here.

This is a lean because, if Murray plays, the Nuggets might just have enough to beat this Bucks team whose only real threat is Giannis.

PASS.

I lean towards Milwaukee to cover here as a -1.5 (-115) favorite, but I prefer the Bucks’ odds on the moneyline as that is the safer play. When going against this Denver team that will likely have its best 2 defenders back and potentially Murray as well, it is not worth the risk to back Milwaukee to win and cover here against a better team.

BET UNDER 220.5 (-105).

The Under has hit in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games overall, including in its last home game. For Milwaukee, the Under is 7-3 in its last 10 games and 21-17 on the season. The Under has also hit in 5 of the last 6 matchups between these squads.

With Jokic out and Murray potentially out as well, there simply won’t be enough offense in this game to make the Over a real threat. The Bucks have just the 21st best offensive rating while Denver was just held under 90 points in its last game, making the Under nearly a lock.

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