Jan. 16, 2026, 1:04 p.m. ET

The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-14) face the Houston Rockets (23-15) Friday. Tip-off from Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Timberwolves vs. Rockets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 season series: Tied 2-2

The T-wolves have won 6 of 7 after a 139-106 rout of the Milwaukee Bucks Tuesday. They were 1.5-point road dogs as they are without superstar G Anthony Edwards. F Julius Randle led the way with 29 points, 8 boards and 6 assists. He’s averaging 22.2 poits per game (PPG), which is up from 18.7 last season.

The Rockets were misguided in a 111-91 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday. They were 4.5-point home dogs, and their 91 points were a season low. F Kevin Durant led the way with 19 points and 7 boards, but he struggled from the field. In fact, everyone did, shooting just 34% from the floor.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Timberwolves at Rockets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Timberwolves +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rockets -185 (bet $185 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) | Rockets -4.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Timberwolves at Rockets key injuries

Timberwolves

G Anthony Edwards (foot) outG Terrance Shannon Jr. (groin) out

Rockets

(Not yet submitted; below was from Thursday)

F Tari Eason (ankle) outF Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) outG Fred VanVleet (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Timberwolves at Rockets picks and predictionsPrediction

Timberwolves 110, Rockets 105

The Rockets are on a back-to-back, and they laid a stinky egg Thursday night. Granted, OKC has an elite defense, but Minnesota is sixth in the league with a 113.8 defensive rating. The Wolves are without Ant Man, but they’re spreading the floor and getting buckets from numerous outlets.

I’ll take a shot on TIMBERWOLVES (+150).

Skip the spread since we’re going big with the ML. Instead, I’ll go JULIUS RANDLE OVER 1.5 THREES (-140). He shot 4-for-6 from deep Tuesday and was 5-for-6 against Houston last time he faced them 13 months ago.

We have some contrasting trends here as Minnesota is 7-3 O/U in its last 10, and the Rockets are 2-8. I’m more in line with the UNDER 222.5 (-110) here. Houston is averaging 102.7 PPG over its last 7 games, and the Wolves’ 139 without Edwards feels like an abberation.

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