This week I’m headed to Nebraska, and before I cross the border, let me apologize to the Husker state.
While I was early to rank Nebraska — I had them in my Top 25 for the first time in the season’s third week — I did not put them in the top 10 until last week at nine.
Nebraska is now one of only four teams with at least 10 wins in the first two quadrants, joining UConn and Michigan, which are both 11-1 in those games, and Duke, which is 10-1. The Huskers, of course, are perfect. They are tied for the Big Ten lead with Purdue at 7-0 with the best efficiency margin in conference games — a tenth of a point ahead of the Wolverines. And Nebraska might be the best-executing team on both ends of the floor in college hoops. This start is no fluke.
I bumped Nebraska to No. 4 this week. Other big movers include Kansas, Florida and Virginia. More below on all four, plus thoughts on UConn’s 3-point defense, Duke’s passing bigs, Texas Tech slowing AJ Dybantsa, North Carolina’s defensive struggles and St. John’s and Wisconsin’s hot offenses.
Dropped out: Utah State, SMU
Keeping an eye on: Texas A&M, Iowa, Kentucky, Villanova, Georgia
3. UConn (18-1, 8-0 Big East)
The Huskies are holding opponents to 27.5 percent shooting from 3 — best in the Dan Hurley era — and limiting attempts as well. They are one of two high-major teams holding opponents under 30 percent shooting from deep and a 3-point rate under 35 percent (South Carolina is the other).
The numbers are even better with Tarris Reed Jr. on the floor. With Reed, opponents are shooting just 25 percent from deep and attempting only 30 percent of their shots from deep, per CBB Analytics.
Reed’s fitness level and ability to guard are major areas of growth from his Michigan days, when he played on mediocre defenses. He can hedge and recover quickly:
And there’s no need to ever offer him support when his man has the ball in the post:
Reed has allowed just 1 point all season on 10 post-ups, according to Synergy. UConn’s defensive efficiency is not quite at the level of Hurley’s back-to-back championship teams, but it is better than the championship teams so far (92.7 points per 100 possessions) in Big East play.
4. Nebraska (18-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
The Huskers are on fire shooting the ball right now and have made 45 3s in their last three games. They are elite at spacing to the right spots and passing accurately to shooters with quick triggers. They attempt 27.4 catch-and-shoot jumpers per game, which is the fifth-most nationally, according to Synergy.
Instead of spacing to the corners, most of Nebraska’s 3s come from above the break:

The quickest release in the country might belong to Pryce Sandfort, who the Huskers are always looking for on the wing in transition:
Another way Nebraska gets a lot of its catch-and-shoot shots is on drives-and-kicks, particularly coming from the baseline. Many teams look to cut the opposite 45 or look for the baseline drift, but the Huskers are hunting for above-the-break 3s on baseline drives:
It doesn’t have to be a drive, either. It can come off a cut, too.
In Big Ten games, the Huskers are attempting the highest rate of 3s (53.2 percent of their shots) and shooting the best (39.4 percent), and it’s not just the shooters. It’s the type of shots they’re getting.
7. Duke (17-1, 6-0 ACC)
Passing bigs have never been more in demand. Duke has three elite ones in Cam Boozer, Patrick Ngongba II and Maliq Brown.
Their assist rates added together are better than any other team’s top three bigs in my Top 25.
Big men assist rate
Duke
55.6
Louisville
53.8
St. John’s
53.5
Saint Louis
52.6
Iowa State
44.8
Michigan
43.8
Nebraska
43.2
Gonzaga
39.2
Purdue
36.1
Florida
35
Duke is scoring 11.9 points per game off cuts and ranks eighth nationally in efficiency on plays that end in a cut (1.476 points per possession), per Synergy. It was elite in this area on its West Coast swing last week, scoring 37 points off cuts.
Boozer does some of his best work out of post doubles:
Then Ngongba and Brown love to facilitate from around the key area.
Brown has the lowest assist rate of the trio, but some of the prettiest dimes:
13. Texas Tech (14-4, 4-1 Big 12)
Texas Tech held AJ Dybantsa to 6-of-17 shooting, turned him over three times and limited him to one free throw and a season-low 13 points on Saturday. Donovan Atwell had the assignment most of the night and did a terrific job of staying in front of Dybantsa, keeping his chest on him and showing his hands.
BYU scored a season-low 1.01 points per possession, and Texas Tech, which struggled defensively the first two months of the season, has the 13th-best defense in January games, per Bart Torvik.
15. Virginia (16-2, 5-1 ACC)
In 1997, coach Dave Odom paired 6-foot-11 Tim Duncan with 7-foot-1 freshman Loren Woods at Wake Forest. That season, the Demon Deacons ranked second in 2-point field-goal percentage defense and 10th in block rate.
Now that Odom’s son Ryan is at the high-major level, he’s going with a similar formula. While his two elite rim protectors — 7-footers Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso — rarely play together, they’ve helped Virginia hold opponents to 43.6 percent shooting inside the arc (fifth-best nationally) and Virginia’s block rate (17.3 percent of opponents’ 2-point attempts) is fourth-best.
Building defenses around elite rim protection is an approach Odom started at VCU, but the difference with this team is Virginia doesn’t allow many shots at the rim. Virginia and Michigan are the only teams that rank in the top 10 in block rate, 2-point defense and 2-point distance (meaning their opponents’ average shot distance is farther from the rim), per KenPom.
16. Florida (13-5, 4-1 SEC)
Florida is on a four-game winning streak and the favorite to win the SEC after winning 98-94 at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Over the last four games, the Gators have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 139.3, the best in college basketball over that stretch, per Torvik.
Transfer guards Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee are only shooting a combined 24.1 percent from 3. But they have been efficient inside the arc, kept their turnovers low and made the two biggest plays of the game at Vandy.
Lee, despite his shooting struggles, still plays with confidence. He buried this go-ahead 3 when Florida had nothing going on this last-minute possession:
Then Fland came up huge when he got the stop that turned out to be the game-winning play.
Notice how excited the two guards are. That’s a great sign for the Gators.
18. Kansas (13-5, 3-2 Big 12)
Flory Bidunga scored 12 points as a roller in Friday’s 80-62 win over Baylor. Kansas is figuring out that Darryn Peterson and Melvin Council flying off a Bidunga ball screen is dangerous because of the vulnerability their speed puts on the defending post player. And you’d better bring help on the back side because Bidunga is one of the best lob finishers in the country.
Also what will keep Big 12 coaches up at night, Bill Self has his marker ready to find creative ways to get Peterson and Bidunga in two-man games.
Peterson and Bidunga combined for 49 points on 22-of-27 shooting against the Bears, and Peterson made all five of his midrange shots off the bounce. When he can shoot those efficiently, he’s really hard to guard. He still has yet to finish a game, but he’s starting to find his rhythm, and last week was a big step toward the Jayhawks figuring out how to play with him.
22. North Carolina (14-4, 2-3 ACC)
North Carolina’s defense has been terrible in ACC play. The Heels are allowing 120.5 points per 100 possessions, which is second worst in the league. You could say they’ve had bad 3-point luck. ACC opponents are shooting 44.9 percent from deep. There will likely be some regression, but the tape is bad.
The Heels are awful communicators, and Caleb Wilson, who has put up huge numbers, is a big part of the problem. Wilson falls asleep off the ball too often, communicates (if he does at all) too late and isn’t always engaged.
In the Stanford game, UNC was getting killed in the pick-and-roll with its bigs in drop coverage and its guards running into screens or going under, so coach Hubert Davis decided to hard hedge late in the game.
With this weird alignment below, UNC’s bottom defender tagged, which left Wilson and Luka Bogavac (both circled) in charge of defending three players.

Since Bogavac is the low man, he should take the cutter, as he does, and Wilson is left with the other two. Keep an eye on Wilson as the play develops:
Wilson is constantly reacting too late.
Now let’s fast forward to the last minute of a close game, when defenders are usually most locked in. Wilson ends up involved in a dribble-handoff, which in a last-minute, late-clock situation is always going to be a switch, especially considering the player receiving the ball (Ryan Agarwal) already had four 3s and is a 41.4 percent 3-point shooter. Wilson should be switching up to take away the shot. Instead, he’s back on his heels:
You’d think Davis gave it to the Heels in their film session before the Cal game, but the tape was just as bad. Cal made the most 3s it has made in an ACC game (14) in its two seasons in the league and won 84-78. UNC, which looked like a possible ACC title contender in November and December, is now off to a 2-3 start in league play.
24. St. John’s (13-5, 6-1 Big East)
The Johnnies are on a four-game winning streak and starting to come alive. While they haven’t lived up to their preseason ranking (fifth) or the Big East coaches picking them to win the league, they’re alone in second place and have had the best offense in Big East play.
While they are allowing a high 3-point percentage in conference games (37.2), they’re the Big East’s best defensive rebounding team and are forcing the highest rate of turnovers. They also rank top 23 in every predictive metric, and their lowest resume-based ranking is 28th (in wins above bubble). This is a team that deserves to be ranked again.
25. Wisconsin (13-5, 5-2 Big Ten)
The Badgers have the second-best offense in college hoops over their last four games, per Torvik. They are shooting 40.5 percent from 3 during that stretch and attempting 55.3 percent of their shots from deep.
A heavy dose of Nick Boyd in pick-and-rolls is what’s working best for the Badgers. Boyd pick-and-rolls have generated 69 points on 54 P&R plays (1.28 PPP), including 13 made 3s, during the four-game winning streak.
The Big Ten has a clear top five, and the sixth team (usually ranked in my rankings) is likely Wisconsin, Ohio State or Iowa. The Badgers have a one-game lead on the Buckeyes and a two-game edge on the Hawkeyes. I’m still bullish on Iowa, but Wisconsin is playing the best right now.