Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Bulls at Timberwolves on Thursday.

There’s something about January 22 that’s synonymous with big scoring performances. 20 years ago today, Kobe Bryant set the post-merger single-game scoring record by dropping 81 points on the Toronto Raptors, and on this date in 2024, Joel Embiid had 70 points and Karl-Anthony Towns 62. Towns’ outburst was sufficient to set the Minnesota Timberwolves’ single-game scoring record.

If any player scores 82 points tonight, it could be another Timberwolf who’s the most likely. Anthony Edwards had the fourth-best single-game scoring performance in Minnesota history on Saturday in a loss to the San Antonio Spurs and followed it up with 38 points in another losing effort — this time against the Utah Jazz — three nights later. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Edwards have another huge scoring performance tonight, when the Timberwolves host the Chicago Bulls at 8 p.m. ET.

For Chicago’s part, it received a major injury update before the game, as Josh Giddey, who’s missed the last 11 games with a hamstring injury, was upgraded to probable. With Giddey back, the Bulls should be pretty healthy, with Patrick Williams (questionable; ankle) the only major contributor this season on the injury report. Minnesota is completely healthy besides deep bench piece Terrence Shannon Jr., who has been out with a foot strain since December 25.

The Timberwolves are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-375 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 239.5. Chicago is +295 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the Great Lakes-area battle and offer my prediction.

Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction

The Bulls have survived without Giddey, going a solid 6-5 with their star point guard absent, as Matas Buzelis has continued his second-year leap by averaging 17.9 points per game on a 54.9% effective field goal percentage and Tre Jones has proven himself a capable table-setter, making 60.7% of his shots on fairly low usage and dishing out 7.8 assists per game. Chicago certainly isn’t a great team — it appears bound for the Play-In Tournament for the fourth consecutive season and might be better served dealing Nikola Vučević before the February 5 trade deadline — but Billy Donovan’s scheme allows it to compete with any team on any given night.

Minnesota is also in the Play-In Tournament picture currently and is on the longest active losing streak in the Western Conference, but at 27-17, it is just three games behind the second-seeded Spurs. Each of the Timberwolves’ last three losses has been decided by five points or less, and they have a reasonable excuse for the first two: Edwards didn’t play in one, and they were without both Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid in a matchup with Victor Wembanyama. The Utah defeat is more inexcusable, but weird losses tend to happen over the course of a long season. Minnesota fans shouldn’t fret about the sky falling.

Bulls at Timberwolves pick, best bet

The Bulls have been a similar team with or without Giddey on the floor: in the 984 minutes that he’s played, they’ve been outscored by 0.8 points per 100 possessions, and in the 1,094 minutes that he’s sat, that number dips only slightly to minus-2.9. Despite his slashing and passing ability, Chicago has been similarly prolific at driving to the rim, similarly poor at preventing opponents from getting layups of their own, and similarly good at generating wide-open threes with Jones running the offense in his stead. His presence shouldn’t majorly change the tone of the game, especially since he’s likely to be on a minutes restriction and come off the bench.

Having an inside-out offense generally works for the Bulls, who have enjoyed roughly league-average efficiency, but it might not be such a great fit against the Timberwolves, who have arguably the greatest rim protector in NBA history (Gobert). Expectedly, Minnesota has allowed the fourth-lowest shooting percentage in the restricted area and the 14th-fewest points in the paint, posting the 10th-best defensive rating overall. Chicago’s propensity to allow shots at the basket might also be a problem against a team that has made the sixth-most restricted-area tries this season. The Timberwolves also have a slight advantage on the glass, allowing the fourth-fewest second-chance points per game, and they have a better turnover margin. Minnesota’s biggest issue is its indiscipline, but the Bulls are among the league’s worst teams at drawing fouls.

The fact that Chicago has generated the league’s most wide-open three-point attempts bodes well, and in that respect, Giddey’s return could even help: despite his reputation as a non-shooter, his 38.6% three-point percentage is actually higher than the 37.0% that would be expected based on his shot quality. The Bulls have also been even better than the Timberwolves at closing out, which could help them cut into Minnesota’s raw shooting edge. Their high shot quality means they have the overall shooting advantage: they’ve made 14.4 triples per game to the Timberwolves’ 14.1, which could keep them in the game.

However, home court advantage is a major factor, as the net swing is 6.2 points per 100 possessions in Minnesota’s favor. Plus, if the game goes into crunch time, that would be a boon for Edwards, who ranks fourth league-wide in total clutch points while putting up 68-55-82 shooting splits in such situations. Plus, the Timberwolves are 8-1 in their last nine home games against teams in either the Play-In or playoff picture in either conference, with an average winning margin of 7.9 points per game. Minnesota’s strengths align with Chicago’s game plan just enough that it should pull away in the fourth quarter and win by a slightly larger margin tonight.

Best bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 (-110)