CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Before Keaton Wagler left for Illinois this summer, the 6-foot-6 guard from the suburbs of Kansas City kept getting asked a question.

You think they’re going to redshirt you?

“I was, like, man, I don’t think so,” Wagler said. “But now that you’re saying it, I dunno.”

Wagler was the No. 261 player in his class, according to the 247Sports Composite ranking. He played on a grassroots team that wasn’t affiliated with a shoe brand, a public high school in a Kansas school district that hasn’t produced an NBA player since 2004. Illinois was one of only two Power 4 programs to offer him a scholarship. (The other, Minnesota, fired its coach six months after the offer came.)

Wagler was, in the words of Illini senior Kylan Boswell, a “little scrawny.” He and the fellow veterans didn’t exactly think he would factor into the rotation. A possible redshirt? Sure.

Then Wagler got on campus.

“It was like a total 180 of what I thought it was gonna be,” Boswell said. “I realized he would be one of the star players for our team.”

The question Wagler might get now is whether he’s going to enter the NBA Draft as a one-and-done college basketball player. The starting point guard for a No. 11 Illinois (16-3) team contending for the Big Ten title, Wagler has surpassed every expectation to become college basketball’s biggest surprise.

First, he beat out Mihailo Petrovic, an MVP candidate last season in the Adriatic Basketball Association, an Eastern European professional league, for a starting spot. Then he scored 40 points and had seven assists in the Illini’s first two games. He’s currently on a run of 11 straight games in double figures since a move to point guard. He leads the Illini in scoring (15.9 points per game), assists (4.0 per game) and is second in rebounds (5.2 per game).

And now, the scrawny kid from Shawnee, Kan., is projected to be an NBA lottery pick — No. 11 on The Athletic’s latest board — and if he were to leave and go in the first round, he’d become only the third one-and-done first rounder to rank outside the top 100 of his recruiting class in the history of the Recruiting Services Consensus Index, which dates back to 1998. He could also become the first one-and-done, first-round guard in that time with an offensive rating north of 130.

How good is #Illini freshman guard Keaton Wagler?

He had an ‘off night’ against Maryland – in which he flirted with a triple-double. 13 points, seven rebounds, eight assists.

Brad Underwood: “If that’s his ‘off night’ sign me up right now, because the greatest players in… pic.twitter.com/wlTLbQRbBm

— Glenn Kinley (@glenn_kinley) January 22, 2026

“I saw him in the preseason at practice and sent a message out to our guys and I don’t really think they took it that seriously. Like, oh cool. They had no idea who he was,” an NBA scout told The Athletic. “And then I went with our assistant GM to see him in Alabama, and it was an immediate ‘I don’t know, not strong enough,’ because he hadn’t seen him and because he just didn’t know the name. Now it’s, like, ‘Oh wow, he’s a primary (prospect). Oh, we need to do more (research) on him.’

“I think there are some teams that are late to the party, but I also think there are teams that have seen enough that are like, he is a lottery pick.”

It’s easy to underestimate Keaton Wagler. I’ve done it myself.

The first time I ever saw Wagler was in the winter of 2021. He was a freshman at Shawnee Mission Northwest, where my son Brayden was in the same class and where I also played high school basketball. Wagler would show up to the freshman games to watch and get up shots at halftime. His jumper was picture perfect and he could shoot with range, but he was only 5-foot-8, 130 pounds, and I wondered aloud, “Who’s little brother is that?”

At that time, Wagler was a freshman, playing up on the junior varsity. But the varsity team, led by two star players — one of whom was his older brother Landon — started to face triangle-and-two defenses and needed a shooter who could make defenses pay. SMNW coach David Birch had been playing pickup ball with Wagler for years because his dad, Logan, would bring his boys along, and he used to get frustrated the young Wagler would find a way to score against his high school guys. He knew Wagler could make 3s, so he figured that was his solution. In Wagler’s first varsity game, he made four 3s.

“He proved that he can make shots and he wasn’t scared,” Birch said. “It was kind of the same things back when he was 9 or 10, like, ‘why is he scoring on these guys?’”

After the season, Wagler had a major growth spurt — he was 6-2 by the start of his sophomore season — growing so fast that his mom, Jennifer, remembers constantly rubbing the soreness from his knees. He led the Cougars to their third straight state tournament as a sophomore, but he was far from the radar of Division I schools.

In the summer after his sophomore year, Wagler got his first scholarship offer from Rockhurst, a local Division II school where his dad played, and he burst from his room to share the news with his parents and brother.

“Everyone was so excited,” he said. “And I was like, this is amazing.”

Keaton Wagler was only 5-foot-8 as a high school freshman, but a growth spurt led to his first college offer as a sophomore. (Fred Zwicky / Imagn Images)

As a junior, Wagler grew to 6-4. The Cougars also had a 7-foot sophomore, Ethan Taylor, who was already getting recruited by high-major schools. (Taylor recently committed to Michigan State.) The other three starters, also juniors, eventually got college scholarships — two are at local Division II schools and another at a junior college.

Before the season, Birch pulled Wagler into his office and told him he was playing with a lot of guys who needed shots. “Give them their shots, especially when you see them not (engaged) in the game,” Birch told him.

The Cougars went 25-0, winning the first state title in school history.

“The reason everybody felt good about their roles was because Keaton delegated all of it,” Birch said. “And you know that’s something you really can’t teach a guy to do.”

Wagler got his first DI offer that season from UMKC, but he was still an unknown nationally and not fully recognized in the area. He didn’t win player of the year in his school’s league.

Birch thought Wagler would end up at a mid-major, crush it and then transfer up, because then the high-majors would see it. But he realized Wagler was about to ascend when he buried two bombs from well beyond the 3-point line early in the state title game.

“It was like, okay, this guy’s not scared of the moment,” Birch said. “He can probably play at a pretty high level earlier than maybe I thought.”

In the spring after his junior year, Wagler had opportunities to join either of the shoe-sponsored teams in Kansas City — MoKan on the Nike Circuit or KC Run GMC with Under Armour. Those platforms are where it’s easiest to get noticed because high-major coaches watch their games every weekend they’re allowed in the gym.

But Wagler decided to stick with his local team, led by Victor Williams, a former Oklahoma State guard who played for Eddie Sutton in the early 2000s. Since graduation, Williams has operated a grassroots program in his hometown of Kansas City — VWBA — without shoe company money.

Williams entered tournaments with shoe-sponsored teams that summer, and VWBA went 4-1 in those games, the highlight a win in Atlanta over Nike-sponsored Team Thad, which featured five-star point guard Jasper Johnson, now at Kentucky.

“They probably had nine Division I players on that team, and Keaton Wagler was the best player on the floor,” Williams said. “And we beat them by 25.”

3 ⭐️ #1 Player in Kansas, 25’ KEATON WAGLER @KeatonW34 calls Game against Florida Pro in 2OT in ATL #Elite32‼️@vicwilli @mattgore1234 @RL_Hoops @OntheRadarHoops @OTRHoops @SmnwHoops pic.twitter.com/tTEO1h0GwX

— VWBA Elite (@VWBAelite) July 13, 2024

That summer, as Wagler said he realized he belonged on the floor with high-level players, he asked his dad to get in the gym constantly. Logan, who is the director of Parks and Recreation in Lenexa, Kan., where the family lives, made a deal with himself when his kids were young that because he had access to a gym, he would take them any time they wanted.

“It was fine until Keaton got a little older and he just completely wore me,” Logan said. “We’d be on the road all weekend, come home on a Sunday, it’d be early enough, he’d be like, ‘I wanna go get some shots up.’ Like, Dad needs some rest! He made me break my rule.”

Williams, who often worked out Wagler on the side, watched as Wagler put together one of the best summer seasons he’d seen. Williams told Logan in the spring that he thought his son was a high-major player, then in July, on an elevator in Dallas, he went one step further: He’s a pro.

“I’ve had a lot of high-level basketball players,” Williams said. “I’m gonna tell you this for a fact. He is the most self-confident, self-belief person, especially at that age, that I’ve ever been around. He knows what he wants. You can’t convince him to do things that he’s not comfortable with doing. He’s gonna be an everyday person, and if you’re his guy, you’re his guy.”

Williams made his case to high-major coaches, and most passed. But when he sent the tape to Illinois assistant Tyler Underwood, he found a believer.

When Wagler was growing up, his dad used to get him a pair of basketball socks if he got 10 or more rebounds in a game. Scoring was never prioritized in the Wagler house. Just make the right basketball play. So Wagler never chased numbers (outside of rebounds) and never dominated the ball, and his talent didn’t slap you in the face.

But the film popped for Tyler Underwood, and the first thing that sold him was the passing. Underwood’s father, Illini coach Brad Underwood, loves players who can pass because he equates the skill to basketball intelligence, and Wagler played with his head up, advanced the ball at every opportunity and made every read.

In August before his senior year, Wagler started touring some of the mid-major schools who offered in July — Colorado State, Drake, Murray State and Southern Illinois. Wagler wanted to make his college decision before the high school season started, and Tyler Underwood told his dad they needed to make an offer to let him know they were serious — even though they had never seen him in person.

So on the afternoon of Aug. 22, 2024, with the Waglers driving on a gravel road headed to Southern Illinois from Murray State, Wagler’s cellphone rang in the backseat, and it was Brad Underwood. They talked for a few minutes.

Then the call dropped.

“What’s going on back there?” Logan asked.

“I was on the phone with Coach Underwood.”

“Underwood? Like Illinois?”

“Yeah.”

“Call him back!”

Wagler suggested waiting until he had a better signal, then told his parents, “Oh yeah, he offered me before the call dropped.”

“What?!” Logan shouted. “Why isn’t that the first thing out of your mouth?”

This is Wagler. Nonchalant. Never braggadocios.

Wagler contemplated whether he should post anything on X, because he didn’t want to take away from the visit he was about to take to Southern Illinois, but his dad told him he should be consistent. He’d announced every other offer. Later that night, he had a video call with Minnesota, which also offered, and just like that, the offers Williams told him would eventually be there arrived in one day.

Illinois assistant Tyler Underwood, son of head coach Brad, led the recruitment of Keaton Wagler. (Taj Falconer / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

Wagler is the first American-born player Brad Underwood can remember who he has offered a scholarship without seeing live — so to show Wagler they were serious and get eyes on him, Tyler Underwood went to Shawnee in early September to watch Wagler in a three-on-three game with some of his high school teammates.

“Three-on-three is an interesting way to evaluate just because he had the ball in his hands a lot,” Tyler said. “You got to see some of the natural feel. You’re like he’s 6-6, can dribble, pass and shoot, like what am I missing?”

A few weeks later, Wagler visited Illinois and the school and program felt perfect. The team chemistry, the development, a strength coach in Adam Fletcher who is considered one of the best in the country.

“Being around the players, I could tell everyone wants to get better each day,” Wagler said. “I was like, this is the culture I wanna be a part of.”

Wagler committed four days after his visit and turned his attention to the high school season. Birch’s theory why so many schools were slow to offer was they assumed Taylor, a five-star recruit, was the reason the Cougars were so dominant. Early in his senior season, Wagler got to show that was far from the truth when Taylor missed four games with strained ligaments in his hand and Wagler scored 30-plus in two of the games. He led the Cougars to a second state title and won every player of the year award in Kansas and Kansas City.

In June he left for Illinois not knowing exactly what to expect, but with a simple plan: “Try not to do too much, work hard every day, keep my head down, and just grind.”

One week into Wagler’s time at Illinois, Tyler Underwood messaged Logan and said it was going well. In week two, Underwood called.

You need to get an agent.

“That’s when I was like, things must be going really well,” Logan said.

Brad Underwood says for most freshmen, it takes them forever to make a shot, “because they’re getting used to the physicality, their brains are swimming with content and information and the newness of a whole new world.

“Keaton never had that,” he continued. “Keaton never flinched when it came to not making shots or not finishing through contact. And it was day one.”
It was even more impressive this summer considering he was doing it against Boswell, one of the best defenders in college basketball. Boswell came into the office a few days after Wagler arrived and informed the coaches the freshman was “cold.”

#Illini Brad Underwood says Keaton Wagler earned this team’s trust in the offseason when he held his own in the summer against Kylan Boswell:

“It was a fight every day, because Kylan and Keaton were going against each other.” pic.twitter.com/3cV9S6SEZW

— Tristan Thomas (@TristanThomasTV) January 13, 2026

The only real worry was how his body would hold up. Wagler has never been much of an eater. He never liked to eat before school, didn’t like school lunches and didn’t like to eat before he played. But at Illinois, he knew he needed to add weight, so he made it a priority throughout the day, starting with pancakes (instead of waffles, which the rest of the team gets). The Illini have a kitchen right off the practice floor, and as soon as Wagler steps off the practice floor every day, Fletcher is there behind the island and tells him to eat.

“He’s always on my ass, like eat, eat,” Wagler said, and he is more than he ever has in his life. He arrived at 168 pounds, and two weeks ago, he said he weighed in his highest ever at 190.2 pounds.

Once the season started, Underwood tried to shield Wagler from too much too fast by playing him off the ball. In mid-November, he had his first bad game, scoring 8 points on 2-of-9 shooting in a loss against Alabama. Then 11 days later against UConn, he took only three shots and spent most of the game standing in the corner.

He was deferring too much, but that’s not how he would play in practice. “He would go on these burners where he’s shooting off-the-bounce 3s,” Tyler Underwood said. “I don’t want to say it was a lack of confidence, but he was playing in flow and it finally got to the point where it was like, ‘you are hurting us by not shooting the ball.’”

It was time to take the training wheels off, so the next game, Wagler moved to point guard.

Since that move, he’s averaging 17.7 points, 5.5 assists, shooting 41.9 percent from 3 and the Illini are scoring 135.1 points per 100 possessions with Wagler on the floor, per CBB Analytics, and are now the most efficient offense in college basketball. They are also 10-1, the only loss coming on a buzzer-beater against Nebraska.

Those stats are almost identical to his senior year numbers in high school, when he averaged 18.5 points, 4.2 assists and shot 43.6 percent from 3. I attended many of those games, and Wagler plays the same way in the Big Ten as he did throughout high school. The jump in levels is supposed to matter, but somehow it hasn’t.

In early November, Wagler’s high school coaches visited Illinois to watch practice and go to the Florida Gulf Coast game. At the game-day shootaround, one of the coaches jokingly asked Wagler if he was going to drop 30 that night.

“I’m just going to let the game come to me,” Wagler told him.

“That’s all he ever does,” Birch said.

That night he went for 22 points, three assists, missed only two shots and had zero turnovers.

He’s no longer the Illini’s secret. Lately, he’s moved to the top of opponent scouting reports. His coaches wondered how he would handle that, and the Missouri game on Dec. 22 gave them their answer. The Tigers tried to blitz Wagler on ball screens, hoping he wouldn’t be able to handle the pressure and wouldn’t be able to get his shots. He simply passed to his open teammates and still ended up with 22 points in a 91-48 win.

As the Underwoods expected, people are noticing. The hype has taken off, as Wagler has started to show up on mock draft boards and NBA scouts and agents are calling his old coaches. His parents have tried to shield him from it, making sure everything goes through his agency, Promondo Sports, but there’s no way he’s not seeing what’s being written. And yet …

“Just seems oblivious,” Brad Underwood said. “He’s just playing. It’s the next game, next day in practice, my next workout. And in the meantime, he is hanging out with our managers and his teammates.”

Sitting around the Wagler kitchen table recently, his parents said they were just hoping he’d be able to adjust to college life, put on some weight and “swallow his vitamins whole.”

“As far as the playing, we didn’t have any expectations,” Logan said. “Like, honestly, we were just crossing our fingers and praying that, what if he just finds a way to crack the rotation and get onto the court and help his team win some games?”

Instead, Wagler has turned into an All-Big Ten level player, and one of the bargains in all of college basketball, considering the Illini were paying for a player not considered a top-100 talent. As high as Wagler is projected to go in the draft, most would assume he’d leave. But if Wagler returns for his sophomore year, he’ll likely be one of the highest-paid players in college basketball while getting another year to work on his body with Fletcher.

The selling point for the Illini: They could return a core that would make them one of the preseason title favorites and the 2027 NBA Draft class is not nearly as strong as the current one. It would fit the narrative arc of his career, as someone who patiently believed he’d get where he wanted to go if he just put the trust in his coaches.

That’s why Brad Underwood loves Wagler’s story. Loves that he didn’t get shipped off to a prep school. Loves that he didn’t play on a shoe circuit and stayed loyal to the coaches who helped develop him. He says Wagler is “one of the greatest stories in college basketball.”

“Keaton isn’t trying to go be famous,” he said. “He’s not trying to date some supermodel. He’s not out there longing for the next nice car, the next nice whatever. That’s not him. His Midwestern, wholesome values we see every single day. It’s be a great teammate, play hard, compete, because it’s what you do in basketball. To me, Keaton’s what the game is about — the kid who is 261 — and just finds his way.”

Wagler said this is the most fun he’s ever had playing basketball, and his humility is obvious when you ask him about the attention, his draft stock and leading one of the best teams in college basketball in scoring.

“I’ve been playing good recently,” he said. “But just knowing I’m going to have bad games, so I can’t get too high and be, like, ‘Oh, yeah, I’m gonna play like this every game.’ I’ve got to focus on what’s going on right now and focus on the game and just doing what it takes to win, just making sure that I’m not looking too far in the future.”

And back at the Wagler house, they cannot stop smiling.

“We’re so proud,” Logan said. “I mean just beyond proud and excited, like, we’re huge fans of the game. And to watch fun games and then to see your son actually out there playing and then, to ramp that up even more, having a major impact on the game, it’s just super, super fun and exciting.

“It’s all been pinch me. All been surreal.”