Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the New Orleans Pelicans vs. Memphis Grizzlies game on Friday’s eight-game NBA slate.

A Southwest Division showdown on Friday night pits the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies against each other at 8 p.m. EST. Both teams are underperforming to varying degrees, but there should be plenty of healthy competition on tonight’s slate as an undermanned Memphis side looks to defend its home court.

Here’s a Pelicans vs. Grizzlies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies prediction, preview

New Orleans Pelicans

The situation is dire for the Pelicans at the bottom of not only the Western Conference, but the NBA standings as a whole. At 10-26, the Pels’ winning percentage of .217 is the lowest seen of any team, and they’ve now dropped another three straight contests. Without much in the way of trade assets and without their own pick, this team has some serious issues it may not be able to address.

Still, the show must go on. New Orleans’ offense is uninspiring with 114.7 PPG (22nd), logging an eFG% of just 52.4% (29th). With bottom-six marks shooting from both two and three, efficiency remains a significant problem for this roster. Two positives are that the Pelicans do rank ninth in points off the fast break and points in the paint, but the halfcourt struggles remain notable with 24.7 assists (27th), a low AST% and middling AST/TO ratio. The Pels do post 53.0 rebounds per game (17th) with some strong bodies in the frontcourt, and they’re quite solid on the offensive glass in particular. Still, defensive numbers are lacking with 122.0 PPG allowed (28th) with an opponent eFG% of 56.7% (29th).

Overall, New Orleans sits 27th in NETRTG at -7.2 and 12th in pace.

Zion Williamson receives most of the star reputation in association with this roster, and he does post 21.9 PPG with 5.7 REB and 3.4 AST as well. However, he’s not the best player on the team. Wing Trey Murphy III averages 22.0 PPG with 6.0 REB and 3.6 AST, shooting even more efficiently than his co-star from two and nailing 38.3% of his three-point attempts. However, whether he remains on the roster after the trade deadline does feel uncertain. Aside from that pairing, Saddiq Bey has put forth a quality campaign with 15.2 PPG, while Jordan Poole follows with 14.8 PPG. Rookies Jeremiah Fears (13.9 PPG) and Derik Queen (12.5 PPG, 7.4 REB, 4.4 AST) are also key members of the rotation.

On the injury report, Herb Jones (ankle) is questionable.

Memphis Grizzlies

It’s also been a rough season for the Grizzlies, who entered with expectations of a postseason appearance in the first full season under head coach Tuomas Iisalo. Instead, they’ve gotten an 18-24 record, various injuries to rotational pieces and a 3-7 stint over their last 10 contests. At 11th in the Western Conference, hope isn’t lost… but it is running thin.

The Grizzlies score 115.3 PPG (20th), moving the ball quite well with 28.9 assists per game (fifth), the fifth-best AST% and the 13th-ranked AST/TO ratio. Those are all positives, especially when considering that the team’s star point guard has been in and out of the lineup throughout the campaign. Efficiency isn’t a strong point though with an eFG% of 52.8% (24th) without standout marks from two or from three, though they do post the fourth-most FGA per outing. Memphis is also surprisingly good on the boards despite a shaky frontcourt group, pulling down 55.6 rebounds per game (fifth) with excellent production on the defensive glass. The Grizz do allow 116.2 PPG (17th), but they’re 12th in opponent eFG% and 11th in blocks with 5.1 per contest as well.

As a whole, the Grizzlies are 18th in NETRTG at -1.0 and sixth in pace league-wide.

Given the injuries, Memphis is led tonight by Jaren Jackson Jr., who averages 18.7 PPG with 5.5 REB and 1.5 BLK. Rookie Cedric Coward’s 14.1 PPG and 6.5 REB make him a standout contributor in his first NBA season, and Jaylen Wells also posts 11.9 PPG. Cam Spencer is a sniper from downtown with a 45.8% 3P% and 11.8 PPG/5.4 AST. Jock Landale has held things down as the primary center in recent weeks with 11.3 PPG and 6.4 REB as well.

The injury report lists Landale (personal) as questionable to play, while Ja Morant (elbow) and Santi Aldama (knee) are both out. Zach Edey (ankle) also remains out.

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Grizzlies as 5.5-point home favorites tonight with -225 odds on the Moneyline. The Pelicans are +185 ML underdogs with the game total set at 240.5 points. Betting splits show 73% of straight wagers on Memphis to win with 58% picking the over on the total.

It’s admittedly a bit surprising to see Memphis favored tonight given the fact that Morant is out, and it’s more perplexing that the public is still so heavily on the Grizzlies to win given that factor. That’s not to say this will be a New Orleans blowout, though. The last two meetings between these teams both ended in Grizzlies wins, the first of which came with a 128-122 final before a 133-128 finish in the second matchup. Morant missed one of those, but both teams scored plenty of points and kept things competitive throughout.

With that in mind, I first considered taking the Pelicans to cover but ultimately changed my mind and landed on the over here. Both of these past matchups hit 250 or more combined points, and Memphis pushes the tempo while New Orleans also makes the most of fast-break opportunities off steals and other turnovers. It should be a close contest, but the Pels certainly aren’t strong on defense and Landale could miss tonight, leaving the Grizzlies’ frontcourt more vulnerable to interior scoring their opponents already do plenty of. With the high totals in the first two games, I’m taking a similar outcome tonight.

Top pick: Over 240.5 points (-105)