Jan. 25, 2026, 10:35 a.m. ET
The Miami Heat (24-22) and Phoenix Suns (27-18) meet Sunday. Tip-off from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Suns odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Miami leads 1-0
Miami dominated the Utah Jazz 147-116 Saturday to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite, with the Over (244.5) cashing. C Bam Adebayo finished with 26 points and 15 boards, helping the Heat dominate the glass 64-34. Miami held Utah to just 7-of-25 (28%) shooting from deep and made 19 of 47 (40%) 3-point attempts.
Phoenix suffered a 110-103 loss to the Atlanta Hawks Friday, failing to cover as a 3-point road favorite while the Under (233.5) hit. G Devin Booker put up 31 points, but it wasn’t enough, as 3 Hawks finished with more than 20 points. The Suns turned the ball over 21 times, leading to 30 easy points for Atlanta. The loss snapped a 3-game winning streak for Phoenix.
The Heat handed the Suns a 127-121 loss Jan. 13, covering as 1.5-point home favorites as the Over (233.5) cashed. Adebayo scored 29 points, while G Norman Powell added 27, as Miami poured in 58 points in the paint and shot 52% from the field in the victory.
Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Suns odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Heat +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Suns -175 (bet $175 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +4.5 (-110) | Suns -4.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Suns key injuries
Heat
(Not yet submitted — below was for Saturday’s game)
G Tyler Herro (ribs) outG Davion Mitchell (shoulder) outC Kel’el Ware (hamstring) out
Suns
G Devin Booker (ankle) outG Jalen Green (hamstring) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Suns picks and predictionsPrediction
Heat 105, Suns 100
PASS.
I lean toward the Heat to win as +145 underdogs with Booker out, but their odds are much safer on the spread in this matchup, especially with all of Miami’s injury question marks. Pass here and bet the spread and/or Over/Under instead.
BET HEAT +4.5 (-110).
Miami has covered the spread in all of its last 3 matchups against Phoenix and is 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix. The Heat are also 26-19-1 ATS this season.
Phoenix has shifted its identity to the defensive side of the ball, but Booker is typically its only consistent source of offense. With him — and potentially Green — both out, the Suns could struggle to generate offense for long stretches.
BET UNDER 226.5 (-110).
The Under has hit in 7 of Phoenix’s last 10 games overall and in all 3 of its most recent road games. The Under is also 26-19 for the Suns this season. Finally, the Under has cashed in 2 of the last 3 matchups between these teams in Phoenix.
With so many key injuries on both sides, it’s difficult to see either team having enough offensive firepower to seriously threaten the Over. Additionally, both squads rank top-8 in defensive rating, making a shootout even less likely.
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