Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Sunday’s matchup between the Suns and the Heat.
The Suns are hosting the Heat on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 225.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Suns vs. Heat preview, prediction
After trading Kevin Durant to the Rockets this offseason, most expected the Suns to be one of the worst clubs in the league, but Phoenix has proved it’s doubters wrong. The Suns are 27-18 and rank 10th in net rating this season.
Devin Booker is leading the team with 25.4 points and 6.2 assists per game, and Dillon Brooks has really stepped up, averaging a career-high 20.2 PPG. Unfortunately, Booker will be out tonight with an ankle injury, which is a major loss for the Suns. Phoenix is just 1-3 with Booker sidelined this season and two of these defeats have been by 19+ points. With the Kentucky product off the floor this season, the Suns’ net rating is 5.6 points per 100 possessions worse than with Booker on.
Phoenix has done almost all of it’s damage this season without Jalen Green, as the elite scorer who the Suns received in the trade for Durant has only played in four games due to a hamstring injury. Listed as questionable, Green has a chance to play tonight, but it’s hard to imagine he plays much if he suits up, as Green only played four minutes in the Suns’ last game before exiting with the hamstring injury.
Brooks, Collin Gillespie and Grayson Allen will be Phoenix’s top options Sunday with Booker out and Green limited, but this is a tough matchup, as the Heat remain one of the top defenses in the league this season, ranking eighth in defensive rating.
Miami has been solid this season, but the club looks bound for another appearance in the Play-In Tournament, sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference at 24-22 and ranking 14th in net rating. The Heat are playing their second game in two nights, after blowing out the Jazz 147-116 last night in Utah. While playing consecutive days is never ideal, the Heat have been great in this situation this season with a 6-3 record on the second leg of back-to-back sets.
Bam Adebayo has been terrific, scoring at least 25 points in three straight and Miami will need the center to remain hot Sunday, as Tyler Herro (ribs) is out and Norman Powell (back) is questionable. The Heat have been far better without Herro this season, so his absence isn’t much of a concern, but losing Powell would hurt, as the ex-Clipper is averaging a career-high 23.3 PPG this season and Miami is just 2-4 with Powell inactive. Powell was out the last time the Heat played their second game in two nights and if the wing sits tonight, Jaime Jacquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins and Simone Fontecchio will all see expanded roles, along with Adebayo.
The Suns and Heat just went head-to-head on January 13th in Miami and the Heat prevailed 127-121, but both teams were much different situations personnel wise then, as Booker played for the Suns and both Herro and Powell played for Miami.
Suns vs. Heat pick, best bet
While the Suns are just 1-3 with Booker inactive this season, all of these games were on the road, whereas tonight, Phoenix will be at home, where the team is 14-5 this season.
Powell being questionable is worrisome for the Heat and this hard nosed Suns group should be able to get a home win tonight. That being said, Phoenix being favored by 5.5 points does feel like too much. The Heat are 6-3 ATS on the second night of back-to-back sets this season and I like backing Miami to cover here as the underdog.