Over the weekend, the Michigan Wolverines fell out of the top-overall spot in the KenPom rankings. This is neither surprising nor unjust, as the Wolverines have fallen off from their juggernaut pace in November and December and instead have labored for each of their past five wins. That stretch also included the season’s first loss, of course, which is something the Nebraska Cornhuskers have miraculously yet to experience.
There is arguably no bigger story across the country that Nebraska’s electric start to the year. At 20-0, this team is clearly no fluke, and at 9-0, the Big Ten crown will be impacted by these Huskers. The good news for Michigan is that this lone meeting is at home, and the metrics do favor the maize and blue on Tuesday. Dropping this game would really narrow the margin across the back half of conference play, however.
No. 5 Nebraska (20-0, 9-0) at No. 3 Michigan (18-1, 8-1)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Jan. 27, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Peacock
After losing to Nebraska twice the season before, the Wolverines did find a way to eke out an ugly 49-46 victory in Lincoln last February, one of just two wins over the final six regular season games. This was actually the second of five-straight losses for the Huskers during this timeframe, but Fred Hoiberg’s squad bounced back to win the illustrious College Basketball Crown, a tournament it will miss this postseason.
Nebraska 3PT Shooting: 38.5% (1st B1G)
The blueprint for Nebraska is no secret this season. No team is better from deep in Big Ten play, as the Huskers take more threes than nearly anyone (52.3% of shots) and make them at a solid clip. There are seemingly always at least four shooters on the floor, and even if the triples are not falling at a ridiculous rate, there are enough attempts to simply overwhelm most opponents.
This is a real test for the Wolverines. Since the Wisconsin disaster, opponents have been below-average from deep, hitting just 30.4% of their looks over the past four games. However, teams continue to lean on this avenue to score against Michigan, as nearly 38% of opponents points come via the longball (the Michigan offense, for example, generates just 29.1% of their points this way). Nebraska obviously will follow this pathway as well (45.1% of its points come via threes).
Like the entire world, Dusty May knows what his opponent wants to do, and the plan has to be just running everyone off the line. Going under screens is going to lead to a barrage of threes, so forcing the ball inside the arc will make the Huskers either settle for long twos or test their luck against the Michigan bigs. Shots are going to fall, this is just part of basketball, but reducing the number of opportunities is the clear antidote.
Nebraska Opp. 3PT Rate: 46.7% (15th B1G)
On the flip side, Nebraska allows the fourth-highest rate of threes in conference play, and this is often where its games are won. Opponents take plenty of shots from deep but hit them at just an average rate, often falling to keep up with the prolific shooters on the other side. While Michigan does not need to get into a three-point contest, it will need to be better from range that it has been recently.
A top-5 matchup is where stars must shine, and obviously that starts with Yaxel Lendeborg. While his ability to drive to the hoop is essential, the Wolverines are hurting from his 5-for-20 effort from deep over the last five games. Fortunately, Elliot Cadeau and Nimari Burnett are both hitting exactly 40% of their attempts during this stretch, and they will need to stay hot on Tuesday.
May’s philosophy is optimizing shot quality, so the Wolverines will continue to drive the lane and lean on its size advantage down low. Still, the efficient play is often going to be taking the available looks from behind the arc, and hitting significantly fewer threes than Nebraska may be impossible to overcome. This area has not been Michigan’s strength as of late, but now is the perfect time to get back on track.