Bill Yin breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Thunder vs. Pelicans on Tuesday.
It’s a top-and-bottom situation tonight as the 37-10 first-seeded OKC Thunder visit the 12-36 bottom-seeded Pelicans, whose inverse records and positioning on the Western Conference leaderboard should tell us how tonight’s game will go. It’s the NBA, so really, anything can happen, but it’s feeling grim for the Pelicans tonight, who have a 5-17 Away record as they visit the defending Champs.
The Thunder are currently –850 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 233.5. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
OKC is running it back this season after just capturing the title last season in an exciting Game 7 victory, a game that could’ve become an instant classic if not for the unfortunate injury to Tyrese Haliburton, a heartbreaker that cemented OKC’s championship. The Thunder have had health issues this season in missing standout wing Jalen Williams for extended stretches. They’ve also been missing Isaiah Hartenstein. This team, however, is simply deep enough and good enough to sleepwalk to the first seed without their second-best player. Their defense is airtight, their offense is top-5, and their championship pedigree is now undeniable. It wouldn’t be a reach to assume that they’ll take it easy tonight, but that’s just not how champions think.
New Orleans’ situation is more interesting. They have a competitive roster on paper, featuring former number one overall pick Zion Williamson, standout rookie center Derik Queen, and borderline All-NBA wing Trey Murphy III. They also have Dejounte Murray on ice, and you’re thinking that with this roster, surely they’re competitive, right? Well, no. They’re conceding the fifth-most rebounds per game at 55.5, the second-most assists per game at 28.8, and the third-most points per game at 121.5. Things are even uglier when you factor in the aforementioned talent on this team. Jeremiah Fears has been impressive as a rookie, who’s flashed some nice handles alongside decent scoring prowess off the bench. It feels like every year the Pelicans will contend, but they simply fall short.
Thunder vs. Pelicans pick, best bet
Best bet: Total O 233.5
These teams have met twice this season, with the Thunder winning both games convincingly with 137-106 and 126-109. In both games, the total points were over tonight’s O/U points total of 233.5, so I’m banking on the Thunder’s offense completely steamrolling the Pelicans. We just need to hope that the Pelicans can stay within 20 points all night.