North Carolina is entering the heat of ACC play with a 16-4 overall record and a 4-3 mark in league play.
So far, the Tar Heels have picked up quality wins over Kansas at home and Kentucky and Virginia on the road, which will bode well for their NET ranking, especially if they continue to win games.
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The Tar Heels are playing with much more confidence after they rebounded last week with wins over Notre Dame and Virginia following a rough start to ACC play. While the season is far from over, let’s take a look at their ceiling and floor right now. Of course, we will come back to this topic later in the season.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
Nov 7, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) shoots as Kansas Jayhawks guard Elmarko Jackson (13) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
In terms of ceiling, this is the most realistic spot for where North Carolina’s season ends.
For starters, the Tar Heels’ offense has been hot throughout ACC play, as they lead the conference in points per game (84.7), field-goal percentage (49.5%), effective field-goal percentage (57.5%), assists per game (16.7) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.77). Carolina also ranks second in offensive efficiency at 120.9.
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UNC arguably has the best frontcourt duo in the country in Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson, a veteran leader in Seth Trimble and an emerging freshman point guard in Derek Dixon.
However, there are two major concerns that could keep the Tar Heels from reaching the Final Four: free throws and poor defense.
There were signs of progress, particularly on the perimeter, in their win over Virginia. The Tar Heels held Virginia to 8-for-27 shooting (29.6%) from 3-point range. But they still surrendered 80 points for the fifth time in seven ACC games, an ongoing concern for a team that continues to rely on its offense to cover defensive lapses. The Tar Heels are still last in 3-point percentage defense and turnovers forced per game.
Then there are the issues at the free-throw line, as the Tar Heels are shooting just 66.7%, which ranks 321st nationally.
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Floor: First-round exit
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VIRGINIA – JANUARY 24: Head coach Hubert Davis of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts to a play in the first half of a game against Virginia Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena on January 24, 2026 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
Carolina, especially head coach Hubert Davis, would not want this outcome at all for several reasons. It signifies how disappointing a year it has been, considering that UNC spent nearly $14 million to build this year’s roster. There are also historical ramifications at play, as Carolina has never been knocked out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
For this to happen, it would likely be because of the two reasons mentioned earlier, along with an unfavorable matchup against a team with athletic guards who can shoot. To get a matchup like this UNC would have to lose between eight and 10 games. Right now, USA Today has North Carolina as a fifth seed while ESPN and On3 has the Tar Heels as the sixth seed.
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Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 11 seeds have defeated No. 6 seeds 62 times (38.8%), and No. 12 seeds have knocked off No. 5 seeds 57 times (35.6%). Given UNC’s flaws, the Tar Heels could easily fall victim to an upset, especially if they have an off day and draw an unfavorable matchup.
If this were to happen, it would set up a very interesting offseason.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Ceiling and floor entering heart of ACC play