The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves meet in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals Monday. Tip-off from Target Center in Minneapolis is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Thunder lead 2-1

The Thunder opened the series with a pair of wins and covers at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, and they looked to build a commanding 3-0 lead when the series moved to Minneapolis for Game 3 Saturday. The Timberwolves had other plans, blasting OKC 143-101 and cashing as 3-point underdogs with the Over (216.5) comfortably coming through.

Minnesota shot lights out Saturday, hitting 57.3% (55-of-96) from the field, while going 50.0% (20-of-40) from distance. If there were any complaints, it was a 76.5% (13-of-17) free-throw percentage.

Timberwolves G Anthony Edwards led the way with 30 points on an efficient 12-of-17 shooting, while going 5-of-8 from 3. He also had 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals with a plus-36 point differential in 30 minutes. F Julius Randle was also a very sharp 9-of-15 from the field, ending up with 24 points, 4 boards and 3 dimes, while dropping in a pair of 3-pointers.

The Thunder was just 40.7% (35-of-86) from the floor, while hitting only 31.8% (14-of-44) on treys. Oklahoma City turned the ball over 4 more times, while Minnesota had 11 offensive rebounds to just 5 for OKC. The bench scoring was great for the Timberwolves, outscoring the Thunder 66-52.

MVP G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ended up with just 14 points on 4-of-13 from the field, while posting a dismal minus-32 point differential. G Ajay Mitchell was a bright spot off the bench, posting 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting in 19 minutes.

Thunder at Timberwolves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:57 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Thunder -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Timberwolves +125 (bet $100 to win $125)Against the spread (ATS): Thunder -3.5 (-105) | Timberwolves +3.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Thunder at Timberwolves key injuries

Thunder

Timberwolves

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Thunder at Timberwolves picks and predictionsPrediction

Thunder 119, Timberwolves 111

The THUNDER (-150) are right-priced down to moderate favorites, and they’re worth a look for conservative bettors not willing to lay the points.

Yes, Oklahoma City (+125) got buried by 42 points in Game 3, so it takes a bit of a leap of faith to back the Thunder in Game 4. However, the Thunder have followed up losses with a perfect 3-0 record in these playoffs.

OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (-105) is the way to go as it looks to bounce back after an ugly lopsided loss in Game 3. All 3 games in this series have been decided by at least 15 points, so if you like OKC, you should like it to cover, too.

Minnesota isn’t going to shoot lights out 2 games in a row, and Oklahoma City isn’t going to struggle as mightily as it did last time out.

The Thunder are 2-1 ATS in 3 games in this postseason following a loss, although we haven’t had to see them responded after a 42-point loss, either, so this is rather unchartered territory.

OVER 218.5 (-110) is worth a look in Game 4.

The Over has cashed in each of the past 2 games, as the losing team is averaging 102.0 PPG in the stretch, while the winning side has managed 130.5 PPG.

Let’s go OVER until we start to see much better defense.

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