The race for the 2026 NBA Draft’s top pick comes down to two names: Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa. On paper, they look the same; but the numbers tell a different story, and the differences are glaring.
2 Prospects, 1 Pick: What Stats Say About Peterson vs. Dybantsa
The road to the first overall pick isn’t just about talent. It’s about availability.
The question of who goes number one could be as simple as who stays healthy, and for how long. Unlike Dybantsa, Peterson has missed significant time this season with a lingering hamstring injury. First it was an absent non-conference slate, then a gradual uptick in minutes before he sat out the entirety of Kansas’ 86-62 Sunflower Showdown victory.
But midseason absence only tells part of the story. Postseason performances are what gets remembered and where talent emerges. Peterson might be a shooter, but Dybantsa controls the floor. He’s got the kind of dominance and that NBA scouts crave.
In the NCAA tournament, that kind of versatility is the difference from a first round exit and a Final Four appearance. It’s the formula that turns the average draft prospect into a household name.
By the Numbers: Who’s ahead in the statistical race?
On paper, Dybantsa’s numbers are glaring: 23.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game on 53% shooting. He’s arguably the most dominant BYU freshman since Danny Ainge, whose scoring record he broke with a 43-point outburst in the Holy War against Utah.
For context, Ainge averaged 20.9 points, 4.6 assists, and 52.6% shooting during his freshman season; the key difference being that Dybantsa accomplishes it as a forward.
Numbers don’t favor Peterson in this debate either. By the numbers, he’s behind Dybantsa in every category. The Jayhawks guard has also only appeared in 10 games this season to Dybantsa’s 19.
If stats are your argument, it’s a cut and dry decision.
Jan 24, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) reacts during the first half against the Utah Utes at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images
What we still don’t know
The Big 12 still has yet to see Peterson at full strength. According to Kansas head coach Bill Self in December, he’s been “day-to-day” since then. Recent trends don’t indicate any change.
But if Peterson can post 25+ point totals against teams like Baylor, TCU and UCF, think about the upside. It’s hard to argue against him when only 34 other players with 16+ games are averaging those numbers fully healthy.
The media hasn’t done him any favors either. Candid shots of Peterson on the bench showed up north of 3-4 times per game in crucial moments of the Jayhawks’ early losses. For the rehabbing star, the story has only been the injury.
From deep, Peterson shoots an astronomical 42%. On any given night, it’s not uncommon to see two of every three triples fall, especially in the clutch. For a true starter, even with limited minutes, that’s special.
The No. 1 pick goes to Dybantsa
The case is simple. If you’re going to invest millions into a player, you want someone who can stay on the floor – and right now, Peterson simply isn’t that.
Will the pair go back-to-back? Probably. Either way, projections shift and injuries happen, but so do breakout performances.
Right now, it’s just a matter of time.
© Aaron Baker-Imagn Images