Getty
ORLANDO, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 24: Paolo Banchero #5 of the Orlando Magic reacts against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter at Kia Center on October 24, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The Orlando Magic are 24-22 on the season to date, and were hoping for more. And at the crux of the frustration is the plateaued production of the player thought to be their best, something made worse by the inevitability of comparison.
Season averages of 21.9 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game are, objectively very good. But every time that Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder takes yet another leap forward, or receives yet another bit of praise, it resonates with Magic fans – why is Paolo Banchero, the player they drafted one spot ahead of Holmgren in the 2022 NBA Draft, not making the same sort of leaps forward?
Â
Banchero Won The First Battle Early
To be sure, Banchero got out to the better start. As Holmgren missed his rookie campaign through injury, Banchero hit the ground running, winning the Rookie of the Year award in a dominant fashion, scoring 20 points per game straight from the off, and making the All-Star Game as early as his second season. From the day they brought him into the league, the Magic had themselves a high-quality NBA-calibre scorer.
A direct comparison between he and Holmgren, while also inevitable and increasingly painful, is also objectively unhelpful from the minute the picks are made and forever thereafter. There was at one time a choice between the two. There is not one now.
Nevertheless, Holmgren’s development into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and lynchpin of the best team in the world serves as an unwelcoming interrogative light onto the progress of the Italian. Never under any projection was Banchero expected to ne that kind of impactful defensive player; his skill was always offensive. He was however expected to continue to improve. And it does not appear as though he has.
Â
Yet To Find Best Offensive Spots
Stagnation in the production is the obvious starting point. Banchero’s 21.9 points per game average is four points below what he averaged last year, which runs counter to overall improvements in the Magic’s offense, which has gone from one of the league’s worst in 2024-25 to almost middle-of-the-pack in 2025-26. The Magic made a big offseason offensive acquisition when they traded for Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies, but nothing about Bane’s versatile perimeter scoring talents should change Banchero’s ability from the mid-range and in. If anything, the added spacing should be helping him.
Because he is not and will never be a dominant rebounder or defensive player due to a lack of elite length and athleticism, Banchero’s impact was always to be offensive. But as an offensive player, while he is good at many things, he has yet to find his best usage – and nor have the coaching staff found it for him. Despite a green light to shoot, isolate with the ball in his hands, drive or just raise up, Banchero has not shown the ability to create all that much separation as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, is too often static off the ball, has not levelled up as a three-point shooter, and is seemingly peaking at the Julius Randle level rather than the Carmelo Anthony that was hoped for.
Ideally, a player should be rounding into the best version of themselves by year four, and becoming the player around whom the system is built. Paolo’s immediate forebear as a #1 pick, Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons, did exactly that last season, despite also not having the athleticism of some of his peers. Banchero is very talented, regularly baits opponents into fouling him on those drives, can score from inside and out, is more cerebral than Randle, passes well on the short roll and has high-level perimeter skills for a de facto big man – but it has yet to convert into the eliteness that is required. And because of that, Orlando’s Pistons-esque leap has so far failed to materialize.
Mark Deeks I am continuously intrigued by the esoterica and minutiae of all the aspects of building a basketball team. I want to understand how to build the best basketball teams possible. No, I don’t know why, either. More about Mark Deeks
More Heavy on Magic
Loading more stories