This might be the slowest January for Bengals news that I can remember in the recent history of this beat. No playoffs, no coaching searches, minimal trouble with the law and no players popping off to national media (yet).
The Bengals have quietly gone about their business of evaluating the draft and free agency, with only the potential move of offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher sprinkled into the headlines.
For better or worse, Cincinnati is staying low-key while the rest of the NFL is spinning sideways with one of the craziest coaching cycles in recent memory.
There were still many questions on your mind, so let’s open the mail.
Why does the team continue to draft prospects with high-end traits with relatively little college production when they have shown little to no ability to develop those guys? — Sam S.
You weren’t the only one to ask a version of this question, and it’s a common complaint, specifically on the heels of the Shemar Stewart pick last year.
Stewart will be the poster child for this argument until he shows something different. His rookie year was a dud. I said in the moment I would have selected Derrick Harmon or Malaki Starks instead, but it’s not fair to call Stewart a bust yet, considering he’s only played 279 NFL snaps. Stewart takes the torch from Myles Murphy, who used to be the target of fans’ ire as the traits-heavy prospect before he took off this season. That came with an assist from defensive coordinator Al Golden and defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery.
I do think the job Montgomery did with Murphy this year provides hope for players like Stewart and, to a lesser degree, Kris Jenkins, a pick that doesn’t take enough criticism for underachieving. Montgomery’s ability to develop high-traits pass rushers, from Rashan Gary in Green Bay to Keion White in New England and now Murphy in Cincinnati, shows he might be the right man to help fix this problem on the defensive line. And the right man to get more out of Stewart when given a full offseason and a healthy regular season.
But, you’re right: Inevitably, it’s about the players. My question would be more about which players you are referring to here. I don’t tend to lump picks outside the top 50 with the rest because there are reasons they are going that late in the draft, and there’s inherent risk and a higher bust factor for all of those players.
I’ll say this: Amarius Mims was a high-traits pick with relatively little college production/experience. He played well at Georgia, but only had eight starts when the Bengals took him. That’s a traits projection. He developed quickly and the pick has been a success. I mentioned Murphy earlier and frustration with his first two seasons was understandable, but he came around.
Amarius Mims has become a pillar of the Bengals’ offensive line since being drafted with the No. 18 pick in 2024. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Dax Hill had elite traits, but was a productive player at Michigan. He was miscast upon arrival in Cincinnati, but he finally turned into a successful pick.
With first-round picks, specifically, you can often look at exercising the fifth-year option (or inking an extension) as a sign of bust or hit. Since the league went to a fully guaranteed fifth-year option starting with the 2018 draft class, the average is a 57 percent pickup rate. When the Bengals exercise the fifth-year option on Murphy this year, it will mark five consecutive fifth-year options picked up and an inevitable six in a row coming with Mims next year. That’s every single first-round pick since Zac Taylor was hired.
There are ugly whiffs and reaches on Day 2 that have set them back. Those have been a problem, but I would attribute the majority to being pigeonholed into picking positions in the draft rather than a heavy lean on traits. Plus, whatever went haywire selecting Jackson Carman.
I hear the traits-production argument, understand how the Stewart situation ripped open those old wounds and plan on diving deep into it with this year’s prospects. Director of player personnel Duke Tobin has an obvious preference for athleticism being predictive. I don’t think that’s changing. This argument goes on in personnel departments across the country. Still, if we are talking about the first-round strategy and development, I have a hard time arguing with a perfect fifth-year option rate in the Taylor-Tobin tenure.
You’ve written a lot about the Bengals’ reluctance to pay players into their 30s, which was likely a result of getting burned when they did that with Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. Why were they so eager to break precedent with a lesser player (compared to those two) in B.J. Hill last offseason? — Chris H.
It’s ageism season! You are absolutely correct. The Bengals do not sign older players in free agency. Offensive line is the only exception where they have shown willingness to employ players age 30 or older.
Dating back to Taylor’s arrival in 2019, the Bengals have not signed a single non-offensive line outside free agent or extended their own player to a deal worth at least $3 million in average annual value who is older than 29.
That’s still technically intact with Hill, who turned 30 last April. You are right, though, the Hill signing was a head-scratcher. It went away from their norms because they had to do something at the position and couldn’t land other options. There weren’t many three-techniques in that price range that were younger. They felt like, even at 30, Hill was their best option.
I’d have made an argument for edge/3T Dre’Mont Jones, but in a world in which Javon Kinlaw was getting $15 million per year from Washington, there wasn’t going to be a great, young option waiting to accept $11 million. The error comes from not taking advantage of last year’s deep defensive tackle draft class and instead focusing on linebacker. Another option there could have lessened the need to rely so much on Hill, who ended up battling through injuries in a pedestrian season.
Thanks for the sheet! Love it and the pod discussion. Curious to learn more about the Joe Burrow restructure possibility. Was the contract set up for probable restructures similar to the Patrick Mahomes deal? What do you think the odds of a restructure are? — Matthew S.
I wasn’t sure whether to include the Burrow restructure element in the Bengals mock offseason exercise. I ended up doing it because I wanted everyone to see the possible options that opened up if the Bengals took advantage of it.
Last year, Burrow clearly spelled out how he views a potential restructure and that he would be willing to do it. He talked about converting salary to bonus, which would add cash to this year and push cap hits to the back of the contract. There’s no reason to believe Burrow would have changed his mind about the concept since last year. We see quarterbacks with large contracts do this all the time.
As an example, Josh Allen recently did this before the 2023 and 2024 seasons, converting much of his compensation into a signing bonus, creating $17 million in 2024 cap space and $21 million in 2023 space. He signed a new deal altogether last year.
The Chiefs, as you mention, built Mahomes’ contract to be able to take a bite out of it for whatever they need each offseason. That’s available to the Bengals with Burrow. Knowing their contract history and that they have never done that, I wouldn’t call it likely. That said, given Cincinnati’s continuity in a sea of change in the NFL and pressure cooker for this regime this year, clearing space for a more aggressive approach to filling a hole this offseason would be an all-in move to match the moment.
Thanks for the mock offseason sheet — really helpful for the free agent season and the draft. Fill in the blank, “The Bengals’ free agent season is a success because they signed ________ ” — Lynne T.
Big fan of fill-in-the-blank questions. One of the best sports talk tropes.
My answer: A starter at every level of the defense.
Placing a starting-level player at all three levels, then working the rest of the plan from that base, is the easiest path to stabilizing the defense. Then let the growth of current young players and draft picks around them determine the eventual ceiling. But stabilizing the floor with reliable levels of play at safety, linebacker and defensive line will go a long way to lifting everyone.
Thoughts on Al Golden as defensive coordinator — what is his vision and does he have the power in the building to get the guys he wants? — Mark S.
I think we saw his vision after the bye. You started to see players rallying to the ball more, the effort improved and there was more confidence. He knows he needs more leadership and better players on defense. I think all eyes of the organization are on getting Golden more of what he wants in terms of veteran players and pass rushers, and they all have a better idea of what that needs to be after seeing it for a year.
Can they execute it? They didn’t last year. From the Trey Hendrickson and Stewart clouds to starting two rookie linebackers and every step of the Geno Stone experience. They are banking on a year of learning for the players, as well as the coaches and personnel department, to help execute better on building an improved defense.
I don’t think it’s a matter of vision or power to make it happen. It’s a matter of executing it in free agency.
How is Erick All Jr.’s rehab going? Is/was he ever around the team throughout these past six months, and can we expect him to be fully recovered and ready to contribute at camp? — Scott S.
Last I heard, All was doing well. He was around much of the year, doing rehab, and expectations are that he is on the path to being in the mix at tight end next year. The bigger question is how his knee will hold up and how much you can rely on somebody coming off double-ACL surgery.
Perhaps he never has another issue and regains the same speed-power-skill combination that made him such a promising prospect. There are no guarantees, but the Bengals expect to find out for sure in 2026.
Erick All Jr. had a promising rookie season until it was cut short by an ACL tear in 2024. (Erick W. Rasco / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
Are the Bengals even capable of finding and signing free agents that can help? — Royce M.
The last free agent they signed who would be classified as a hit was Orlando Brown Jr. in 2023. Some may debate that classification, but I think most would do that deal again.
It’s been a rough run since, headed by the 2024 class of Stone and Sheldon Rankins, and last year’s general lack of major outside free agents, instead reupping with Hill and Joseph Ossai and standing by Logan Wilson.
That said, from 2020 to 2023, they paid 11 outside free agents at least $5 million in average annual value. By my estimation, nine were hits, one was a maybe (La’el Collins) and one was a miss (Trae Waynes). That’s a heck of a hit rate in free agency.
It hasn’t gone well the last two years, and there was luck with even landing Brown. There’s an obvious need for caution considering the trend. But, to answer your question, yes, they are more than capable.
Do you think the Bengals will add to the WR room with a draft pick or a free agency signing? Or is there belief Mitch Tinsley, Andrei Iosivas or Charlie Jones will make a leap this year? Or has the offense evolved to a point where TEs and RBs are more important than a WR3? — Jason W.
I don’t see them adding a receiver. We know they would love a player with speed and big-play ability to do what Jermaine Burton was supposed to do on the field. However, between Mike Gesicki and Iosivas, they have trust and a history of playmaking when the double-double defense emerges. Could the position be better? Sure. They just aren’t going to use significant assets on that spot when the defense is in such dire need of playmakers.
Now, once the draft crosses over into Day 3, receiver is in play. They would love to find another late-round gem to start building around who could potentially emerge in 2026 or take over the spot when Iosvias is a free agent in 2027.