Phil Jackson once said that serious contenders for a championship have to win 40 games before they lose 20, and history has proven him mostly right. 

Since 1980, only four teams have won a championship without reaching the 40-20 rule: the 1994–95 Houston Rockets, the 2003–04 Detroit Pistons, the 2005–06 Miami Heat, and the 2020–21 Milwaukee Bucks. Everyone else, including the 2024 Celtics, won 40 games before losing 20. 

No one expected this year’s team to be among the contenders, but this is why the games are played. Between the emergence of role players and Jaylen Brown making a strong first-team All-NBA push, the Celtics are right in the mix at 30-18 and in a tie for the East’s second seed with the New York Knicks. 

40-20 isn’t a hard, fast rule, but it’s a strong indicator. Winning 40 before losing 20 means a lot of things. The most obvious is that the team is pretty damn good. Winning 40 also usually means general good health, figuring out how to win clutch games, and depth to carry a team through slumps. 

Two teams are a lock to get to 40-20, barring something catastrophic. The OKC Thunder are 38-11, and the Detroit Pistons are 35-12. No one expects either team to go 1-9 or 4-8, so they’ll make it. The San Antonio Spurs are 32-15, so 8-4 over their next 12 games is right in line with their current winning percentage, so they can probably make it. 

The Celtics, at 30-18, have almost no room for error moving forward if they’re going to hit this mark. A 10-1 run is asking a lot of a team that’s now 7-6 over their last 13 games. On top of that, winning 10 of 11 has to cross over the All-Star break and into a Western Conference trip against some tough teams. 

Here are the next 11 opponents:

PRE ALL-STAR

POST ALL-STAR

2/1: Milwaukee

2/19: @Golden State

2/3: @Dallas

2/22: @Los Angeles Lakers

2/4: @Houston

2/24: @Phoenix

2/6: Miami

2/25: @Denver 

2/8: New York

2/27: Brooklyn

2/11: Chicago

A back-to-back in Houston will be tough. The game before the All-Star break is always difficult. And then there’s a tough back-to-back at Phoenix and Denver, and the Nuggets just got Nikola Jokic back.

Getting to the 40-20 mark will be tough, but it’s not the only indicator of future success. As Matt Moore of the Action Network has noted, there are two other metrics the Celtics meet, at least right now, that show they could be in the championship mix. 

For Title Track this week, I’ve narrowed it, changing the threshold to 4.0 SRS. Only 3 teams in the last 30 years (10%) have won the title with an SRS below that figure.

90% of teams all-time to win the title have won 40 games before 20 losses.

97% have been top 3 seeds. pic.twitter.com/SXUu6FSctY

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) January 25, 2026

SRS, or Simple Rating System, takes point differential and quality of opponent into account. Boston’s current SRS is 5.39, marginally behind Detroit and fourth in the NBA. 

They’re also a top-three seed right now, which is important for maintaining home court advantage for at least a couple of rounds. 

What these other teams don’t have that Boston does is the possibility of an All-NBA player joining their team. Sure, Jayson Tatum has been hesitant about his return, but few people think he’ll actually let these intrusive thoughts hold him back. We also still have a few days before the trade deadline, so the Celtics can make themselves a little better before then as well. 

So while it’s very unlikely that they’ll hit 40/20, they could still hit other indicators while also getting Tatum back and adding a player at the deadline. There are other teams with stronger cases, but the Celtics shouldn’t be eliminated from the discussion just yet.