To this point in the season, we haven’t had a ton of major upsets among the top teams in the country. In fact, the top 10 teams in the AP poll have a combined 16 losses, an average of 1.6 per team. That means one of two things – either the teams at the top of the sport have really separated themselves from the rest of the nation, or they’re due for some regression! Let’s see what happens over the next month and a half!
NC State over SMU
Jan 27, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) reacts to his dunk during the first half of the game against the Syracuse Orange at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images
The Wolfpack have really hit their stride as of late, running their offense behind a pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop scheme with Quadir Copeland handling the ball, Derrion Williams setting the screen, and Paul McNeil and Tre Hollomon spacing the floor. It’s fun to watch, and I don’t think that SMU is going to have any answers for it, lacking the personnel to switch on the screen.
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DePaul over St. John’s
The year is 2026, and the Blue Demons finally have a home-court advantage. In Big East play, DePaul has only lost once at home, and it was to the top-of-the-conference UConn Huskies. CJ Gunn is the type of scorer who can catch fire and ignite an entire arena, and I think Tuesday is the night when DePaul is officially back on the map.
Washington over Iowa
Iowa head coach Ben McCollum directs his team during a basketball game against the USC Trojans Jan. 28, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa.
Cross-country road trips have meant doom in the Big Ten this season. Here we have Iowa traveling to the Pacific Northwest to take on a healthy and rejuvenated Washington team with Wesley Yates and Jacob Ognacevic back. Plus, the stylings of Ben McCollum generally lead to low-possession games where upsets are more likely.
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Buffalo over Miami (Ohio)
The Redhawks are still unbeaten heading into February, but they are starting to show some cracks. On Saturday, they trailed Northern Illinois by double-digits before coming back to win. In the first meeting between these two teams, Miami needed overtime and then a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to come out victorious on their home floor. Now the game is in Buffalo, and the Bulls are hungry for revenge.
UCF over Houston
Jan 31, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights head coach Johnny Dawkins speaks with an official during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Addition Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images
Winning in the Fertitta Center is never easy, but if Johnny Dawkins’ squad is good enough to beat Texas Tech, they can take down Houston, too. Stylistically, I think this is a good matchup for UCF. Houston loves to blitz and trap ball screens, and UCF has smart ball-handlers who should be able to handle the pressure and make good decisions. I think it’s quite likely that UCF’s forwards can get Houston into foul trouble.
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