Bill Yin breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Pistons vs. Nuggets on Tuesday.

The 36-12 Pistons will host the 33-17 Nuggets this afternoon at 7 PM EST.

The Pistons are currently –175 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 228.5. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.

Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets preview, prediction

The Pistons have found tremendous success this season, with a 36-12 record and leading the East. They’ve gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and look primed to make a serious playoff run given the Celtics are shorthanded without Jayson Tatum. Standout center Jalen Duren will be making his first All-Star appearance with 18 PPG and 10.7 RPG while shooting 63.5% from the field. He’s been a force this season and has flashed some tremendous growth this season in line with the rest of the Pistons. Duncan Robinson’s addition to this team has also been a success, with the standout sharpshooter putting up 7.2 shots from deep while connecting on 39.3% of them. He’s done an impressive job of spacing the floor for this team and opening up the lane for Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren’s pick and roll. Robinson also helps nullify the negative shooting of Ausar Thompson, whose defensive contributions keep him on the floor despite his lack of offensive versatility.

The Nuggets just got Nikola Jokic back from a month long absence. And Jokic doesn’t look like he missed a beat, posting 31 points and 12 rebounds in his first game back against the Clippers. He faltered a bit against OKC with a 16 point, seven rebound, and eight assist performance, but OKC tends to do that to many. The Nuggets have also managed to stay afloat while he was out, which is impressive considering they’re in the West and were also missing other starters in Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Cameron Johnson. But I’d be remiss to discuss the Nuggets without mentioning fourth-year pro Peyton Watson, who has blossomed this season in a big way. He’s doubled his previous season’s PPG and is now averaging 15 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1 SPG, and 1.1 BPG while shooting over 50% from the floor. He’s a big part of how the Nuggets managed to hold onto their position in the West and has forced the Nuggets’ hand in terms of his playing time. Watson’s just performing too well to return to the bench when Denver gets fully healthy.

Pistons vs. Nuggets pick, best bet

Best bet: Denver Nuggets +3.5

This line feels a bit too generous given Jokic’s recent performance in which he scored 16 points with six turnovers, but we all know what his upside looks like, as well as his impact on winning games. The Pistons are a stingy defense, posting the league’s second highest-rated defense, but this Nuggets offense is top of the line. Denver holds the league’s number one offense, putting up 120.8 points per 100 possessions, and this will be a case of unstoppable force meeting unmovable object. I’m backing the Nuggets to cover this spread tonight given the offensive firepower that’s recently been returned to them.