Feb. 5, 2026, 10:27 p.m. ET
The Miami Heat (27-25) and Boston Celtics (33-18) meet Friday at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Celtics odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Celtics lead 2-0. with a 129-116 home win Dec. 19 and a 119-114 road win Jan. 15
The Heat lost to the Atlanta Hawks 127-115 Tuesday, failing to cover as a 1-point home favorite with the Over (236.5) cashing. Miami was led by F Jaime Jaquez Jr., who scored 21 points on 9-for-17 shooting. The Heat have traded off winning and losing over their last 6 games, going 3-3 against the spread (ATS). They are 29-22-1 ATS on the season.
The Celtics beat the Houston Rockets 114-93 Wednesday, covering as an 8-point road underdog. G Derrick White went off, scoring 28 points and draining 6 triples. Boston has won 4 straight games and has covered in each, with all 4 wins coming by double figures. It is 29-21-1 ATS on the season.
Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Celtics odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:26 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Celtics -275 (bet $275 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +7.5 (-115) | Celtics -7.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Celtics key injuries
Heat
G Tyler Herro (costochondral) outG Terry Rozier (not with team) out
Celtics
F Jayson Tatum (Achilles) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Celtics picks and predictionsPrediction
Celtics 119, Heat 108
PASS.
While the Celtics (-275) should win with ease, there’s no reason to consider them for almost 3 times your money. Avoid this play and look below for a better value.
BET CELTICS -7.5 (-105).
The Celtics have been on a roll, and they’re not just beating teams, but dominating them. In their last 2 home games, they have a 28-point win over Milwaukee and a 19-point win over Sacramento. Boston is sound on both ends of the court and should continue surging Friday.
The Heat have struggled with their consistency, and they’ve gone just 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games as an underdog. They have allowed at least 125 points in 3 of their last 5 games, so their defense has clear flaws, which the Celtics should exploit.
Take CELTICS -7.5 (-105).
BET UNDER 229.5 (-110).
This game should be played more toward the Celtics’ style, with Boston ranking last in the NBA in pace. That will reduce the number of scoring opportunities.
Boston has gone Under in 7 straight games, allowing sub-100 points in 4 of those contests. The Heat are 3-3 O/U across their last 6 games.
Take UNDER 229.5 (-110).
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