Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Pelicans at Timberwolves on Friday.

The Minnesota Timberwolves entered the trade deadline with two goals: first, to find a competent lead guard to improve their playmaking, and second, to trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo. While Antetokounmpo ultimately remained a Milwaukee Buck past the trade deadline, the Timberwolves did successfully find a new guard, ending up with Ayo Dosunmu after a series of moves and eventually re-uniting with Conley on a much more reasonable deal after he was traded twice and then bought out by the Charlotte Hornets.

Conley won’t be available to return yet as Minnesota works with him on the timing of his new deal, and as of now, Dosunmu isn’t slated to make his debut for the team yet either. It’s worth keeping an eye on the injury report ahead of tonight’s 8 p.m. ET game against the New Orleans Pelicans in case the Timberwolves do make Dosunmu available.

Otherwise, of Minnesota’s regular rotation players, only Julius Randle (shoulder) has a questionable tag, and everybody else should be available. The Pelicans, who inexplicably did very little at the deadline, are only without Dalen Terry, whom they received from the New York Knicks for Jose Alvarado.

The Timberwolves are 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-455 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 236.5. New Orleans is +350 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.

New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction

With Dosunmu now in the fold, Minnesota has improved its chances at bettering its results from each of the previous two seasons, when it lost in the Western Conference Finals, as his defensive intensity and lights-out three-point shooting should make him an upgrade over Conley, whose defense and finishing has waned in his age-38 season. Any team led by Anthony Edwards — who has averaged 29.7 points per game this season while canning nearly 40% of his threes — the much-improved Jaden McDaniels, and arguably the league’s best rim protector in Rudy Gobert is a contender, and the Timberwolves should feel good about their chances despite not trading for Antetokounmpo. They’ve won five of their last six games.

New Orleans has continued its losing ways, dropping seven of its last 10, and it couldn’t find suitors for Trey Murphy III, Jordan Poole, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, or Yves Missi at the deadline, though it’s unclear how seriously Joe Dumars entertained any offers in the first place. Little encapsulates the Pelicans’ futility more than their 141-137 overtime loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday, as Murphy hit a franchise-record 12 three-pointers as part of a 44-point performance in the loss. New Orleans has no reason to lose, given that the Atlanta Hawks own its unprotected first-round pick, but it has no avenue to win, either.

Pelicans at Timberwolves pick, best bet

In terms of tonight’s game, the trade deadline shouldn’t impact either team too much. Conley had lost his starting spot and is averaging just 18.5 minutes per game this season, and Minnesota has been 5.7 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor regardless, so his absence might well be addition by subtraction. The players the Timberwolves gave up in the Dosunmu acquisition, Rob Dillingham and Leonard Miller, had been significantly negative assets as well, especially on offense, and they had combined for fewer than 500 total minutes. Bones Hyland, who scored 20 points in 26 minutes on Wednesday night, should be good enough to keep the reserve guard rotation afloat until Dosunmu is able to play.

Regardless, the bread and butter of Minnesota’s defense — its rim protection — should remain intact. This season, the Timberwolves have held opponents to the fifth-lowest field goal percentage in the restricted area thanks in part to Gobert, who’s limited opponents to the fourth-lowest mark within six feet of the 46 defenders who have played at least 35 games and guard at least five shots per game in that range. Gobert’s rim protection will be especially critical tonight, given that the Pelicans have attempted restricted-area shots at the league’s highest rate. On the other end, New Orleans has allowed the third-most tries at the rim and given up an above-average percentage, which could help a Minnesota team that gets to the rim at only an average rate but is one of the league’s best finishing teams.

What makes the Pelicans’ task even more difficult tonight is the fact that the Timberwolves are far better at rebounding. New Orleans ranks just 23rd in total rebounding percentage while Minnesota ranks 10th. Though the Pelicans actually rank ahead of the Timberwolves in second-chance points, they’ve allowed the second-most in basketball, in part because of their lackluster rim protection. Minnesota has a slight defensive edge in transition, but it is pretty foul-prone and doesn’t get to the free throw line much more often than New Orleans does. An aggressive Williamson could make a big difference if he can get Gobert in foul trouble.

It’ll all be on Minnesota’s shooters to knock down their open looks. The Pelicans allow plenty of uncontested looks, giving up the second-most wide-open threes in basketball, which could be an opportunity for the Timberwolves’ elite shooting corps (which just got better by trading Conley, who’d hit his triples at a 32.1% rate, the lowest of his career in a full season). On the other end, Minnesota has done a slightly above-average job closing out on opposing shooters, which could make things difficult for a team that, in addition to the sweet-shooting Murphy, has four players connecting on their threes at a rate lower than expected based on shot quality.

New Orleans’ disadvantages in the interior are minor enough that, prior to considering the shooting differential, it might be fair to take the Pelicans to cover the spread. However, they love to give up threes, and that simply won’t fly against the team with arguably the most raw shooting talent in the league. As long as all of their players have just average shooting nights, the Timberwolves should cover the spread with ease.

Best bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 (-115)