The Houston Rockets will play the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder for the third time this season on Saturday night. After a trade deadline that saw the Rockets make zero adjustments, will they show up for the big matchup? Even with the absence of the Thunder’s reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the game should tell us something. For one thing, are the Houston Rockets still serious about contending in 2025-26?
Will The No-Trade Rockets Renew Fans’ Hope Versus Thunder?
The Rockets and Thunder first met this season on opening night. That was a back-and-forth contest that came down to the final possession. In hindsight, losing to the reigning champs by a single point might be the highlight of Rockets’ fans’ season.
More recently, the Rockets lost by 10 at their own arena. They did hold 2026 MVP front-runner SGA to an unusually low 20 points. The Rockets struggled mightily to score themselves, however, shooting just 33.7% from the field.
That’s the main thing Houston should be looking to prove on Saturday night. Much is made of the defensive acumen of SGA compared with other notable MVP candidates. Even so, his absence should not greatly affect the Thunder’s number 1 defensive rating. The main potentially meaningful difference would be that the Thunder may have to defend more fast-break opportunities. They won’t have SGA’s shot-making and trips to the free-throw line to break up their opponent’s momentum.
But the Rockets don’t exactly excel in transition anyway. The Rockets are 22nd in the league in fast-break points, funnily enough, just behind the Thunder. They don’t really excel in any offensive categories except their comically over-specialised first-place offensive rebounding percentage. Even that has taken a hit with the season-ending injury to key piece Kiwi, Steven Adams (4.5 offensive rebounds per game). The Rockets are second-last in assist/turnover ratio and 20th in effective field goal percentage.
Rockets Skip The Deadline
Feb 5, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) dribbles against Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges (0) during the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images
The Rockets chose to forgo moves to improve their offense at the trade deadline. Straight away, in the very next game – a Thursday night clash against the Charlotte Hornets – that decision looked like a mistake. The Rockets lost 109-99, and it wasn’t that close. They never led, and the benches were emptied with 7:44 remaining.
Of particular note was the Rockets’ star player scoring 7 points on 3-for-11 shooting from the field. Said star (though not All-Star) Alperen Sengun had one of his worst games of the season against the Hornets. He was pilloried for his defensive effort as well as his woeful efficiency. When asked about Sengun being targeted on defense, defense-first head coach Ime Udoka made no effort to hide his frustrations with that particular issue. In fairness to Sengun, most centers are targeted on the perimeter, and that’s going to be especially the case for a roster as heavily-skewed towards wing-defense as Houston’s. Showcasing just how reliant Houston is on Sengun’s offensive production, the big man still had the best plus/minus of the starting unit.
Can the Rockets Find A Way To Score?
The Rockets are still 31-19, but they need to show that they can score against playoff-level defenses for fans to hold onto any glimmer of hope for the postseason. Maybe the Hornets game was an aberration of some kind. Maybe the team was thinking ahead to the Thunder game, or still stuck in the headspace of scrolling through trade news. Alternatively, fans could hope that the bad loss will kindle another level of pride among the players. Or maybe, just that someone other than Kevin Durant will just have a rare hot shooting night.
Realistically, the way the Rockets are currently constructed, the team will not be making a deep playoff run this season. It’s not entirely the front office’s fault. Luck played a part. They lost both Adams and starting point guard Fred VanVleet to season-ending injuries. Of course, it seems unlikely that even those two being healthy would solve all of Houston’s offensive problems. Regardless, with no trade at the deadline, most Rockets fans will be waiting on the off-season for any major improvement. Don’t be surprised if there’s a growing contingent calling for another kind of offensive tune-up in the meantime, though. From this point on, Udoka is sitting on rocket fuel.
© Erik Williams-Imagn Images