The Pelicans vs Timberwolves matchup brings together two teams trending toward offense, and the betting market has taken notice. Minnesota has been winning games but not locking teams down defensively, while New Orleans continues to live on the road and play at a pace that invites points. With clear historical trends, recent form, and line movement all lining up, this game sets up as one of the more interesting totals spots on the board. Let’s break it all down and get you ready to wager, plus more daily analysis in our NBA picks.
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Terms & Conditions Quick Picks and Prediction Spread Pick: Pelicans +10 Total Pick: Over 236 Projected Final Score: Timberwolves 124, Pelicans 116 Odds and Line Movement
The spread has held steady in double-digit territory, with Minnesota consistently priced as a heavy favorite at home. Despite that, New Orleans has shown an ability to stay competitive against the Timberwolves, even when losing outright.
The total has seen upward pressure, and that lines up with both recent form and longer-term trends between these teams. With Minnesota’s last four games going over and New Orleans playing fast on the road, the market has been comfortable pushing this number higher.
Opening Odds Market New Orleans Minnesota Spread +10.5 (-112) -10.5 (-108) Total Over 235.5 (-112) Under 235.5 (-108) Current Odds Market New Orleans Minnesota Spread +10 (-110) -10 (-110) Total Over 236 (-110) Under 236 (-110) Line Movement – Spread Date Time New Orleans Minnesota Public ($) Public (Tickets) 02/06 08:21:39AM +10 (-110) -10 (-110) MIN 90% MIN 66% 02/06 01:03:59AM +10.5 (-110) -10.5 (-110) MIN 100% MIN 100% 02/06 01:03:43AM +10.5 (-108) -10.5 (-112) MIN 100% MIN 100% 02/05 11:24:48PM +11 (-110) -11 (-110) MIN 100% MIN 100% 02/05 06:52:11PM +10.5 (-110) -10.5 (-110) 02/05 06:22:26PM +10.5 (-112) -10.5 (-108) Line Movement – Total Date Time Over Under Public ($) Public (Tickets) 02/06 06:47:48PM 236 (-110) 236 (-110) 02/05 06:22:26PM 235.5 (-112) 235.5 (-108) Pelicans vs Timberwolves Key Matchups and Handicap
Minnesota won both meetings with New Orleans in December, but the Pelicans stayed within the number as a double-digit underdog in both contests. That is an important detail, because it shows New Orleans can compete in this matchup even when outmatched on paper.
Timberwolves
Minnesota has won five of its last six games, including an improbable 128-126 comeback win in Toronto on Wednesday. The Timberwolves trailed by double digits entering the fourth quarter before stealing the win late, which speaks to confidence but also defensive lapses.
The bigger betting takeaway is that Minnesota’s last four games have all gone over the total. The Timberwolves have not been playing elite defense recently, ranking 18th in defensive rating over the last 15 games. That drop-off has turned Minnesota games into higher-scoring affairs.
Injury-wise, Terrence Shannon Jr. remains out, Julius Randle is questionable, and newly acquired Ayo Dosunmu may or may not be available. That uncertainty does not necessarily hurt the over, as lineup shuffling often leads to defensive breakdowns.
Pelicans
New Orleans has been racking up frequent flyer miles. Since January 7, this will be the Pelicans’ 12th road game compared to just four home games. That kind of travel load matters, especially defensively.
The road trip has not gone well so far. The Pelicans are 0-3 straight-up and against the spread with stops in Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Milwaukee. Even so, the offense has shown it can explode. Trey Murphy III scored 44 points with 12 made three-pointers in the overtime loss to the Bucks.
New Orleans should be relatively healthy, though the Pelicans did lose veteran point guard Jose Alvarado to the Knicks. Even with that loss, this team has continued to play at a tempo that pushes totals higher.
Betting TrendsNO vs MIN Minnesota won both meetings in December, with New Orleans staying within the spread both times. Eight of the last nine meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Minnesota’s last four games have all gone over the total. New Orleans is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread on its current road trip. Minnesota ranks 18th in defensive rating over the last 15 games. Key Injuries and NotesNO vs MIN Terrence Shannon Jr. remains out for Minnesota. Julius Randle is listed as questionable for Minnesota. Minnesota acquired Ayo Dosunmu, but his availability is unclear. New Orleans lost veteran guard Jose Alvarado in a trade. ATS and Total PicksPelicans
This is not a spot where I am eager to lay double digits, especially given how these teams have matched up historically. Minnesota has won the games, but New Orleans has consistently stayed inside the number as a heavy underdog.
The Pelicans are not playing great basketball overall, but their offense can keep them competitive, even on the road. With Minnesota coming off an emotional comeback win and dealing with injury uncertainty, grabbing the points makes sense.
Over
The total is where this matchup really shines. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over, Minnesota’s last four games have all gone over, and New Orleans continues to play fast despite heavy travel.
Minnesota’s defense has slipped in recent weeks, and New Orleans has shown the ability to score in bunches, even in losses. With both teams trending toward offense and the market comfortable pushing this number higher, the over remains the best angle.
Final Score Prediction
Minnesota should be able to win the game, but New Orleans has the offensive firepower to stay within striking distance. With both teams playing faster and defense not being the priority, this sets up as another high-scoring affair.
Projected Final Score: Timberwolves 124, Pelicans 116 How to Bet
When betting Pelicans vs Timberwolves, the key is understanding where the value lies. Minnesota is the better team, but the spread is inflated, and New Orleans has shown it can hang around in this matchup.
Totals bettors should focus on recent form and defensive trends. Minnesota’s defense has slipped, and New Orleans continues to play at a pace that creates scoring chances. That combination is ideal for an over.
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