Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets NBA matchup.
Tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET across a 10-game NBA slate, the Cleveland Cavaliers will face off with the Denver Nuggets.
This is the second and final matchup between these two cross-conference opponents this season. The Cavaliers produced a 113-108 victory in the first game on Jan. 2nd. Both teams have received a spark since this point, with Nikola Jokic returning from injury for the Nuggets and the Cavaliers bringing in James Harden ahead of the trade deadline.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Nuggets enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -112 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cavaliers hold +108 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 240.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Cavaliers at Nuggets Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers hold a 32-21 record, which slots them in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. After seemingly hitting their peak with the current core, Cleveland traded Darius Garland to bring in James Harden and change its identity. The Cavaliers defeated the Kings in Harden’s first game with the team, and he will help brace for stiffer competition tonight. On the season, the Cavaliers have gone 21-32 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 28 of their 53 games.
The Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in scoring, averaging 119.7 points per game. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, eighth in field-goal percentage, 16th in three-point percentage and seventh in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.9 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. The Cavaliers also rank 13th in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage and 29th in opponent three-point percentage.
Evan Mobley remains sidelined with a calf injury, and Max Strus continues to miss time. Jaylon Tyson and Dean Wade are each also listed as questionable with ankle injuries. Donovan Mitchell headlines the production on the court, posting averages of 29.8 points, 5.9 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. Harden finished with 23 points and eight assists in his first game across his 32 minutes of action for the Cavaliers. Jarrett Allen, Sam Merrill, Dennis Schroder, Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Keon Ellis will each play key roles in the rotation.
The Denver Nuggets sit in third place in the Western Conference with a 34-19 record on the season. They are coming off a victory over the Bulls in their last game, which snapped a three-game losing skid. On the season, Denver has gone 31-22 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 34 of its 53 games played.
The Nuggets lead in the NBA in scoring with 120.4 points per game. Denver also ranks first in offensive rating, second in field-goal percentage and first in three-point percentage as a team. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.3 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 19th in the league. The Nuggets also rank 24th in defensive rating, 15th in opponent field-goal percentage, ninth in opponent three-point percentage and 26th in pace.
Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson have each been sidelined with hamstring issues, while Spencer Jones has been ruled out for tonight with a concussion. Jamal Murray is questionable with left hip inflammation, while Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun are each probable with ankle injuries.
Jokic has returned from his knee injury and is back to playing like his MVP self. The seven-time All-Star is posting averages of 28.9 points, 12.2 rebounds and 10.7 assists. Jamal Murray has stepped up in his absence and earned his first All-Star appearance by posting averages of 26.0 points, 7.5 assists and shooting 43.2% on three-point attempts. Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun and Jonas Valanciunas each also play key roles in the rotation.
Cavaliers at Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
The addition of James Harden is a commendable swing by the Cavaliers after a fair sample size that the team had reached its peak with the past core. However, Harden also provides a notable change in its style of play. Cleveland produced a 132-126 victory over the Kings in Harden’s debut, but it trailed with 2:24 remaining and failed to cover the double-digit spread. This was a Kings team with the worst record in the NBA at 12-42 and entered that matchup on an 11-game losing streak. Facing off with the Nuggets is a significant leap in the level of competition.
Not having Evan Mobley is a huge hit to the Cavaliers’ outlook, given the matchup with Jokic. There is no clear way to stop the three-time MVP, but not having the reigning Defensive Player of the Year sure does not help. Denver also leads the NBA in three-point efficiency, which will be a massive concern as Cleveland has the second-worst opponent three-point percentage allowed.
In contrast to this new iteration of the Cavaliers, the Nuggets have a defined style of play and plenty of chemistry with each other. Denver exceeded expectations across Jokic’s 16-game absence, and it has returned to full form with him. Denver has the third-best ATS record in the NBA at 31-22 and is facing a Cavaliers team that is covering at the third-worst rate at 21-32 this season. It is also 19-16 against the spread at home and 16-14 ATS on equal rest.
Cleveland will find its stride with this new-look roster, but there is going to be some growing pains as Harden settles in. Denver has looked the part of a championship contender all season, and this is a tough matchup for any opponent. Expect Jokic to have his way with this porous Cleveland defense and for the Cavaliers to be unable to match the level of offense. Count on the Nuggets to play to their standard and cover the narrow 1.5-point spread tonight. If you feel better laying the moneyline I will not argue with you, but this is not a matchup I see the spread being an issue.