Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Monday’s NBA matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic.

Tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET as the first half of back-to-back matchups between these two teams, the Milwaukee Bucks will square off against the Orlando Magic.

Tonight is the first of three matchups between these two teams this season. Neither organization holds the outlook they desire on the season, with each failing to live up to their individual expectations.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Magic are 11.5-point favorites with -500 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks hold +380 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 219.5 points.

Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.

Bucks at Magic Spurs Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks have slipped to 12th place in the Eastern Conference with a 21-29 record on the season. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future has been the biggest story of the season, and the organization elected to hold onto him through the NBA trade deadline. This is surely not the last of the trade saga, but he will officially remain on this Milwaukee roster for the remainder of this year. On the court, the Bucks have gone 22-28 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 30 of their 50 games played.

Antetokounmpo will remain sidelined with his calf injury for the foreseeable future. The Bucks will need to make up for his 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists, with the two-time MVP being the foundation of their entire attack. Kevin Porter Jr. adds 17.1 points, 7.5 assists and 5.2 rebounds as the next highest scorer. One of the biggest breakouts of this entire NBA season has been 23-year-old Ryan Rollins. The Toledo product is posting averages of 16.9 points, 5.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds, teasing to be a key part of their long-term future. Bobby Portis pitches in 13.4 points and 6.7 rebounds, while Myles Turner adds 12.9 points and 5.6 boards. Kyle Kuzma, A.J. Green and Gary Trent Jr. also play a role in the rotation.

As a team, the Bucks are scoring 112.0 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in offensive rating, fourth in field-goal percentage, second in three-point percentage and 23rd in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.7 points per game against the Bucks, which ranks 16th in the league. The Bucks also rank 23rd in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage, 25th in opponent three-point percentage and 24th in opponent three-point attempts allowed.

The Orlando Magic sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference with a 27-24 record. They are coming off back-to-back wins over the Nets and Jazz, but they have failed to consistently find their footing on the season. Orlando is producing the second-worst ATS record this season, covering in just 20 of its 51 games played, and the over/under has gone 26-25 this season.

Franz Wagner is set to make his return to the floor tonight after missing the past nine games and 25 of his past 27. Across his 26 games played, Wagner is averaging 22.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. The Magic have struggled to reach their peak as a team with both Wagner and Paolo Banchero on the floor. Banchero is posting averages of 21.7 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game on the season. Orlando traded for Desmond Bane this offseason as its all-in swing, and he has added 19.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Wendell Carter Jr. and Tristan da Silva each also play some key roles in the rotation.

The Magic are averaging 115.1 points per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. They rank 21st in offensive rating, 20th in field-goal percentage, 29th in three-point percentage and 13th in pace. Defensively, the Magic have allowed the 15th-most points at 115.5 per game. They rank 14th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and 19th in opponent three-point percentage.

Bucks at Magic Prediction, Best Bet

Both these teams have some flaws, but there is no doubt that there is a higher margin of what to expect from the Magic on a game-by-game basis. However, Orlando has failed to cover the spread at a reliable rate, and 11.5 points is a high number to reach. The Magic are 20-31 against the spread on the season and have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10. While my belief is still in the Magic finding a way to win, I am staying away from the spread and backing the game total to remain under the 219.5 number.

So much of Milwaukee’s offensive identity is built around Antetokounmpo’s ability to get downhill and create shots for others. Without their star player, every basket looks more difficult for the Bucks. They have been held to 105 points or fewer in eight of their last 13 games played. This includes scoring just 99 points against the Wizards and 79 against the Celtics over the past two weeks. Orlando is also holding teams to the second-fewest three-point attempts, which will cause some problems against a Bucks team that ranks 13th in three-point attempts per game and connects at the second-best rate.

On the other side of the matchup, expect the Magic to have some growing pains in their offensive process with Wagner and Banchero on the floor. The duo has some overlapping similarities in their styles of play that have limited them from finding their peak together. Both players dealing with injuries for stretches of time has also slowed down this process. Tonight will mark just their 17th game together this season.

Neither of these teams plays at a high pace, and expect points to be difficult to come by on both sides of this matchup. The under is 18-8 when the Bucks have played on the road this season and 21-12 in Eastern Conference matchups. The Magic are also 11-10 to the under as home favorites this season, and it is 5-4 in their last nine games played. Orlando has been held to 105 points or fewer in seven of the last 14 games, including being held below 100 in four of these.

Expect the Magic to have success slowing down the Bucks’ three-point production and for the two Magic stars to have some struggles getting back on the same page. Count on points being difficult to come by for both teams and for the 219.5 game total to be too high.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 219.5 (-105)