Sam Connon takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s men’s college basketball game between Xavier and St. John’s.

The Xavier Musketeers (12-11) and No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm (18-5) are set to face off on Monday night, going head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Big East showdown will tip off at 6:30 p.m. EST on FS1.

The Red Storm are 16.5-point home favorites with -1800 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 160.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup, featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Xavier at St. John’s Preview, Prediction

Xavier Preview

The Musketeers have had a tough go in conference play, starting with their 41-point home loss to Creighton back in December. Xavier went on to beat Georgetown by three on the road, but they have lost their five road games since. Their last two games were 18-point and 32-point road losses to Seton Hall and No. 3 UConn, respectively. Xavier already got a shot at St. John’s on January 24, losing that contest 88-83.

Tre Carroll has been the Musketeers’ top scorer this season at 17.9 points per game. He broke 20 in five straight appearances prior to his nine-point showing against UConn last week. Serbian forward Filip Borovicanin leads Xavier with 4.4 assists per game, just outpacing guard Malik Moore and his 3.7 dimes a night. They average 9.8 and 10.8 points per game, respectively. New Mexico transfer Jovan Milicevic and sixth man Roddie Anderson III average 11.2 points per game apiece, with Milicevic shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc. Guard All Wright boasts the highest three-point percentage on the team at 45.0%.

Perimeter scoring is one of Xavier’s strengths, as the team ranks No. 57 in three-point percentage and No. 65 in three-pointers made per game. The Musketeers also rank No. 54 in limiting turnovers and No. 71 in blocking shots, although they are bottom-50 in free throw attempts, two-point shooting and two-point defense. Xavier also averages the third-fewest defensive rebounds per game in the country.

The Musketeers rank No. 101 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 99 adjusted offense and No. 106 adjusted defense. As for the NET rankings, Xavier comes in at No. 100, going 0-6 against Quad 1, 4-4 against Quad 2, 3-1 against Quad 3 and 5-0 against Quad 4. Monday’s game at St. John’s constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.

St. John’s Preview

After coming up short against No. 15 Alabama, No. 15 Iowa State, No. 21 Auburn and Kentucky in non-conference play, the Red Storm have been dominant since Big East action got underway. They trail UConn by half a game in the conference standings, having won nine games in a row to bring them to 11-1. The lone blemish for St. John’s in conference play was a six-point home loss to Providence, although they have made up for that by beating Georgetown, Creighton, Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall and Xavier, plus Butler and DePaul twice each. They are fresh off a nine-point home win over UConn, too.

Forward Zuby Ejiofor is the Red Storm’s leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker with 15.9 points, 7.6 boards and 2.0 rejections per game. Bryce Hopkins, Oziyah Sellers and Ian Jackson are getting similar usage, with all three transfers averaging between 10.9 and 13.6 points per game on at least 8.7 field goal attempts a night. Forward Dillon Mitchell snatched guard Joson Sanon’s spot in the starting lineup last month, averaging 10.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game since. Sellers, Jackson, Sanon and Dylan Darling are Rick Pitino’s most prolific three-point shooters, each hitting at least 36.0% of their attempts from deep.

St. John’s ranks No. 14 in free throws, No. 18 in offensive rebounds, No. 24 in blocks and No. 30 in points on a per-game basis. They also force the 35th-most turnovers per game in the country.

Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Red Storm rank No. 23 on offense, No. 17 on defense and No. 16 overall. They come in at No. 22 in the NET, going 4-4 against Quad 1, 6-0 against Quad 2, 5-1 against Quad 3 and 3-0 against Quad 4. Monday’s game versus Xavier constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.

Xavier at St. John’s Pick, Best Bet

Per Bart Torvik, St. John’s is expected to win 89-72. If that result came to fruition, the Red Storm would cover by 0.5 points and the over would hit by 0.5 points. Basically, the lines available for Monday’s game are in lock-stop with the analytics, so there aren’t any value picks to make based off of the advanced metrics.

Xavier’s road struggles are certainly notable heading into this contest, as they are 1-6 in true road games this season. They have to Iowa by 19 and to Seton Hall by 18, not to mention their 32-point blowout loss to UConn. Those three teams are all top-50 in the KenPom, while the four road games in which the Musketeers won or lost by less than 16 came against No. 74 Creighton, No. 81 Georgetown, No. 106 Marquette and No. 110 DePaul. Xavier simply hasn’t played up to superior competition on the road this year.

St. John’s, on the other hand, just beat a top-five team by nine points at MSG. Two of their previous three home wins were by 20-plus points, as well.

Best Bet: St. John’s -16.5 (-110)