Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Monday’s Philadelphia 76ers vs. Portland Trail Blazers NBA matchup.
Tipping off at 10:00 p.m. EST across a 10-game NBA slate, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off with the Portland Trail Blazers.
This is the first of two matchups between these two cross-conference opponents. Tonight marks the final matchup of Philadelphia’s five-game West Coast road trip, and the final game of a five-game homestead for Portland.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the 76ers are 3.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trail Blazers are +130 underdogs with the game total set at 228.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
76ers vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
The Philadelphia 76ers hold a 30-22 record on the season and sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. They have defeated the Clippers, Warriors, and Suns in this road trip, while coming up short against the Lakers thus far. Philadelphia has also won six of its last seven games entering the matchup. On the season, the 76ers are 30-22 against the spread, and the game total is 26-26 to the over/under.
Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup with right knee injury management and is the only name on the injury report. This is consistent with the way the Sixers have labeled the seven-time All-Star when he does suit up this year. Embiid has looked closer to his MVP self than seemed possible coming into the season, posting averages of 26.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists. Tyrese Maxey has ascended into a legitimate star in his own right, leading the NBA in minutes and adding 28.8 points, 6.9 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. Third-overall pick V.J. Edgecombe has made a seamless transition to the NBA and has been a perfect fit as the glue of this Sixers team. The Baylor product is averaging 15.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game on the year. Kelly Oubre Jr., Quentin Grimes, Dominick Barlow, and Trendon Watford each play notable roles.
Philadelphia is averaging the 12th-most points in the NBA at 116.7 per contest. The Sixers rank 12th in offensive rating, 22nd in field goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage, and 20th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.4 points per game against the Sixers, which ranks 14th in the league. They rank 15th in defensive rating, 17th in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Portland Trail Blazers have quietly been one of the better stories in the NBA this season. They hold a 25-28 record on the season, and have climbed to 10th place in the Western Conference to get in the play-in mix. Portland is coming off back-to-back wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and has won 11 of their last 19 games played. On the season, the Trail Blazers have gone 28-25 against the spread, and the game total is 27-26 to the over/under.
Portland enters with a loaded injury report, which has unfortunately been a trend all season. Damian Lillard, Kris Murray, Sharron Sharpe, and Matisse Thybulle will each miss tonight’s game. Deni Avdija is listed as questionable with a back strain, and Robert Williams III is questionable with left knee injury management. Scoot Henderson is also probable with left hamstring management.
Avdija earned his first All-Star appearance this season, posting averages of 25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. Jerami Grant adds 19.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while Jrue Holiday pitches in 14.9 points, 6.5 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Donovan Clingan leads the NFL with 4.7 offensive rebounds per game and has overall averages of 11.4 points and 11.5 rebounds. Toumani Camara, Caleb Love, and Scoot Henderson also play respectable roles.
As a team, the Trail Blazers are scoring 115.8 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. They also rank 22nd in offensive rating, 28th in field goal percentage, 30th in three-point percentage, and eighth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.0 points per game against the Trail Blazers, which is the 23rd-best rate in the league. Portland also ranks 19th in defensive rating, 20th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 15th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
76ers at Trail Blazers pick, best bet
It has been a strong West Coast rip for this Sixers team, but this is a scrappy Trail Blazers team they must take seriously. Portland is coming off back-to-back wins, but lost six consecutive games before this after scrapping to get above .500 for the first time since November. Keep an eye on the injury report leading up to the matchup, as the outlook for Deni Avdija and Joel Embiid will play a major role and likely shift the line a bit in either direction.
But this Sixers team is showing the signs of a team worth believing in and has had a higher bar of what to expect on a night-to-night basis. Philadelphia can be vulnerable to opponents’ three-point shooting, but this is not a concern in this matchup with the Trail Blazers ranking dead last in three-point efficiency.
The Trail Blazers are an inexperienced group, which could be especially problematic at the big man position. Embiid is incredibly effective at baiting opposing big men to get to the free-throw line and get teams in foul trouble. Expect Donovan Clingan to learn this lesson tonight. Embiid enters this matchup having scored 30+ points in eight of his last 10, and Philadelphia will continue to play through him at a high rate.
With Tyrese Maxey providing a nice balance on the perimeter and players like Kelly Oubre Jr., Quentin Grimes, V.J. Edgecombe, and Dominick Barlow each playing their role, Philadelphia has found its team identity. Portland is still making progress in finding theirs and sorting through which of their young players are true foundational pieces. There have been encouraging flashes from several players, but these are two teams in different stages of their timeline.
Expect this to be on put on display tonight and for the 76ers to continue putting on display their business-like approach to these types of games. They led the Suns for 89% of the matchup in the previous game, led the Warriors for 88% of the matchup, and led the Clippers for 99% of the game across the wins on this road trip. Even in the loss to the Lakers, Philadelphia led for 75% of the game before running out of gas in the second half. The Sixers have covered the spread in four of their last five games and expect this to carry over into tonight. Count on Philadelphia getting out to a strong start and for Portland to lack the necessary firepower to produce a comeback. The Sixers have looked to be the more talented and more cohesive team on both sides of the ball this year, and expect this to be put on display tonight.